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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, October 31, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Demi 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Red Hot Jeanie 3.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Altered Shot 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Argan 5.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Progeny 6.00 2.4 5-1
8 8 Smart With Heart 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 We’ll Do It Live 10.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 Scoot Along 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Caltha 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Revel Toast 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Miss Call 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Grand Luxx 3.50 1.9 3-1
2 2 Hit Parade 5.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Tizianna 8.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Final Shipman 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Quince 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Texas Town 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Gold Search 3.50 1.3 3-1
6 6 Vertrauen 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Flotation Station 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Call the Cavalry 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Tiverton (GB) 6.00 3 6-1
8 8 String Theory 8.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Lobo Salvaje 15.00 9 17-1
1 1 Govenor Hank 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Carolyncaroline 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Baracca 3.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Tiz in Sight 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 My Sweetheart 4.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Celebrity Quest 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Prowess 10.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Lady Captain 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Can’t Deny It 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Litigation 3.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Semper Primus 5.00 2.8 5-1
10 10 Operation Sunrise 10.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Classy War 12.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Cairo Caper 12.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Hit That Review (IRE) 12.00 7.8 15-1
6 6 Mischief River 15.00 10 19-1
9 9 Poseidon’s Law 15.00 10 19-1
7 7 Cheval de Guerre 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Protective 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 McDude 3.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Taunting 4.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Brilliant Man 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Ask Arthur 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 You Belong Here 8.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Express Line 10.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Putting Eagle 15.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Army Hero 20.00 7.3 14-1
1 1 One Mor Story 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Strummin 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Eye Catcher 3.00 1 2-1
13 13 Paige Turner 3.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 All About You 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Raspberry 4.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Grazie Prego 6.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Kopiana 10.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Jolly Jolene 12.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Cove Spring 12.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Queenstown 15.00 9.5 18-1
12 12 Raging Current 15.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 Romulan 15.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Faith So Strong 20.00 13 25-1
3 3 Miss Ida B 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cool Andy 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Ultimate Strike 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Polar Bear Plunge 4.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Fine Vino 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Baytown Bruiser 6.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Single Dot Yaht 8.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Patton’s Tizzy 12.00 8 15-1
8 8 Sprint Out Pass 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Sweet Treasure 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Golden Sunshine 3.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Storm Miami (IRE) 4.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Lucky Speech 5.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Pretty Sassy 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Cheetah Lady 12.00 6.4 12-1
1 1 Foreseen 15.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Yamile’s 20.00 11 21-1
4 4 Trial 20.00 11 21-1
9 9 Take My Picture 20.00 11 21-1
3 3 Pretty Layla 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Prime Suspect 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Fulmine 3.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Boss’ Deed 4.50 2.9 6-1
4 4 Vino Subito 10.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Talmadge 12.00 8.7 16-1
3 3 Orville’s Map 12.00 8.7 16-1
2 2 Saint Robert’s Row 15.00 11 21-1
9 9 Cattle Baron 15.00 11 21-1
1 1 Treblewiththecurve 15.00 11 21-1
8 8 Huckaby 15.00 11 21-1
10 10 Rebel With a Cause 15.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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