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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Turn Up the Trees 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Top Gun Tommy 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Five o’ Somewhere 3.00 1.3 3-1
6 6 Gilded Ruler 5.00 2 4-1
1 1 Honky Tonk Highway 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Scotty’s On Edge 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Hocus 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cape Trafalgar 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Chryso Alogo 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Sutherland 5.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Born Flawless 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 J J’s Joker 6.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Sergeant Gump 6.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Hometown Hero 30.00 8 15-1
5 5 Ready Pursuit 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Speighter Woman 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lovely Emma 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Northern Voyage 4.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Her Town 5.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Kissin Cash 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Bamtwentyklater 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Harmony Road 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Miss Macy 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Evening News 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Call the Cavalry 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Demotivate 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Tejas 5.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Daryl’s Bolt 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Track Ranger 12.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Jr’s Gift 15.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Modica 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Patch O’Brien 15.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Nine Questions 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Patron Silver 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Temple Goddess 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Melody Maker 3.50 1.9 4-1
12 12 Treasured Times 4.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Cat Spring 6.00 4 8-1
13 13 Tender Temper 8.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Malanya 12.00 9.1 17-1
2 2 Lillesand 15.00 11.7 22-1
8 8 Tap to Give 15.00 11.7 22-1
6 6 Sugar Doll 15.00 11.7 22-1
15 15 Sea Zest 15.00 11.7 22-1
9 9 Lost Chord 15.00 11.7 22-1
7 7 Amended Dreamer 20.00 16 30-1
5 5 Always in Vogue 20.00 16 30-1
11 11 Completely Elegant 20.00 16 30-1
16 16 Viking Quest 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Mountain High 1.80 1 2-1
10 10 Kingscliff 5.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Coal Fired 6.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Awesome Hawaiian 8.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Election Night 8.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Ledbetter 8.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Lookin At Mac 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Barstool 12.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Alter Boy 15.00 8.3 16-1
11 11 Inspector Fred 15.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Romantic Ride 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Trouble in Love 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Gin’s Beach Road 1.60 1.1 2-1
7 7 Get Back Loretta 5.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Contrary 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Whippoorwill 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Kiss Me Again 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Lady of Silence 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Passion Rules 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sir Greylind 2.50 1.2 2-1
8 8 Resilience 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Big Blue Line 5.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Duke of Duval 10.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Treble Clef 15.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Urban Planner 15.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Neon Nights 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 I’m Trouble 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Be Real 3.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Bright Skittle 4.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Military Cruiser 8.00 4 8-1
16 16 Restore (FR) 8.00 4 8-1
9 9 Western Boy (ARG) 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Thunder Roll 12.00 6.2 12-1
14 14 First Navy Jack (IRE) 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Hogie the Player 15.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Countthecarats 15.00 7.8 15-1
10 10 Carson 15.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Dismiss 15.00 7.8 15-1
15 15 Zapping Strike 20.00 10.6 20-1
7 7 Cortina (IRE) 20.00 10.6 20-1
6 6 Big Garry 30.00 16 30-1
5 5 Zap d’Etat 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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