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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, November 13, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 No Bees 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Just Like Max 4.50 4 8-1
6 6 Swung 3.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Kid Twist 3.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Fulmine 6.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Dr Fenn 5.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Global Quote 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Sound Cause 3.50 2.1 4-1
3 3 Wizard of Yester 5.00 2.1 4-1
1 1 Heroic Act 4.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Vino Dominus 6.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Pacific Standard 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Ando 15.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Harbor Prince 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Big Nelson 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Surprise 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Spying 3.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Rando 15.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Theprincessfactor 3.50 4.3 8-1
3 3 Princess Ny 4.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Mad About Marie 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Parking Lot Pours 12.00 6 11-1
7 7 La Marinera 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Pushing Through 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Love Knicks Hart 12.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Queen of Queens 3.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Bana 12.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Oaks Street 4.50 7.3 14-1
4 4 Tizzlin 10.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Fizzy Girl 12.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 The Town Tempter 10.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Pippa’s Noncents 5.00 8.1 15-1
8 8 Bellsonhershoes 15.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Battisto 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Volatile Nite 5.00 1 2-1
11 11 My Favorite Girl 10.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Adalene 4.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Hard to Get 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Real Nice Surprise 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Golden Grammy 15.00 4.5 8-1
12 12 Enticing Moves 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Devilsgoldenfiddle 6.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 People Get Ready 4.50 6 11-1
2 2 Nan O’Hara 20.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 She’s Takin Charge 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Miss Que Sera 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Pauline’s Angel 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mother Volga 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Aspenite 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Factor Analysis 2.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Villain 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Big to Do 10.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Mackadoo 8.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Mission Improbable 12.00 7.5 14-1
4 4 Unleash the Power 3.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Not Falling Back 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Governing Party 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Campaign Promises 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Dark Fury 5.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Wits and Wagers 4.50 2 4-1
3 3 She’s No Angel 3.50 3.1 6-1
1 1 Street Painter 8.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Tizntshelovely 5.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Baytown Butterfly 6.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Lookatmybuckle 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Betty’s Pearl 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Stay in Tune 12.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Music Burst 8.00 4 8-1
7 7 Lady Law 15.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Victor Valley 15.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 Paradise 4.00 6.6 13-1
4 4 Dolladoro 10.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Funny Bunny 10.00 8 15-1
5 5 Speightress 6.00 9.7 18-1
6 6 She’s So Coal 15.00 9.8 19-1
2 2 Volatile Spark 20.00 10.9 21-1
15 15 Aunt Sheryl 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tap This Way 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Determined Ace 3.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Smoked Peach 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Emporium 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Faust 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Talbingo 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Mc Vay 8.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Fort Nelson 6.00 4.6 9-1
12 12 Dive Bomber 12.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Multiverse 2.50 5.7 11-1
6 6 Notah 6.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Coalmoon 10.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Summonyourcourage 30.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Optical 20.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Mo Quality 20.00 9.1 17-1
8 8 Master Controller 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Taverna 4.50 1 2-1
10 10 Candy Mine 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Classy Beach 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Contemplate 12.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Spring Dancer 6.00 4.7 9-1
1 1 Justine 4.50 5.3 10-1
9 9 One Happy Island 30.00 7.7 15-1
11 11 Aurora Sky 10.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Dear Scarlett 15.00 8.8 17-1
15 15 Once Upon a Time 10.00 9.4 18-1
3 3 Evie’s Eyebrows 30.00 11.7 22-1
8 8 Loriebeth 20.00 12.3 23-1
16 16 Oath 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Velveteen 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Hissyfitter 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Tempting Eve 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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