Site icon Sports from the Basement

Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, November 16, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Plaza Cue 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Nana Grace 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Executive Suite 3.50 4.7 9-1
3 3 Ashes and Diamonds 6.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Bit of Frost 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Dancing Girl 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Killa Sally 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Menkaure 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Light My Flame 8.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Tactical Command 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Sister Wife 4.50 2.9 6-1
1 1 Sticker Shocked 10.00 5 9-1
6 6 Noroomformischief 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Skylarose 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Well Aware 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Animal Fries 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Mustang Lady 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Marelow 2.50 5.5 10-1
4 4 Cheyenne Moon 20.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Princess Buttercup 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Wild Acclaim 6.00 7.4 14-1
8 8 Tiz Salty 15.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 Fifth Wheel 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Surprenant Cocca 3.00 1 2-1
10 10 Cha Cha Chukka 4.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Good Long Cry 2.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Ce La Vi Charli 10.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Sheila’s Lion 15.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Dozen Diamonds 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Classy’n Connected 15.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Bread to Run 8.00 5 9-1
6 6 Sweet Heat 30.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Miss Authentic 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Globalist 10.00 1 2-1
2 2 Bon Temps 20.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Doc Bovie 3.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Dr. Saikali 5.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Arthur Jr 6.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Woodson 6.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Barker 4.50 5.9 11-1
9 9 Backside 4.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Exhilaration 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Buddy Mac 10.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Yellow Brick 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Quality Chic 4.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Gasoline 4.00 2 4-1
2 2 Elusive Target 12.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Carolo Rapido 3.50 3.5 7-1
9 9 C F V Bullet 20.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Bestfriend Rocket 3.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Slip Mahoney 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Go Emi 20.00 6.9 13-1
10 10 Hern 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Write Off Jerry 12.00 1 2-1
8 8 Pagode 5.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Chillax 1.80 2.1 4-1
6 6 Hop Sing 1.40 2.4 4-1
1 1 Energize 15.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Fountain Lake 6.00 4 7-1
5 5 What’s Up Doc 15.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Hurricanes Ablowin 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fashion Designer 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Slay the Day 3.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Majestic Moon 15.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Diamondintherough 8.00 3.1 6-1
10 10 Run On States 12.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Epic Prankster 15.00 8 15-1
8 8 Winning Matters 8.00 8.3 16-1
13 13 Smoked Peach 15.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Princess Julie 15.00 10.4 20-1
15 15 Aunt Sheryl 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Mighty Hankerin 8.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Yasmin 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Appealing Mischief 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Baby Hello 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Lockdownyourtown 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Rileys Redemption 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Don’t Say It 6.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Tales of The Heart (IRE) 3.00 2 4-1
5 5 Dala 6.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Niki Nine Doors 4.50 3.6 7-1
9 9 Mom’s Palace 6.00 3.8 7-1
12 12 Caberneigh 30.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Hideki 20.00 6 11-1
11 11 Classic Performer 30.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Continuity 8.00 7.6 14-1
3 3 Musical Note 30.00 8.5 16-1
13 13 Moon Spun 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Big Trouble 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Thrilla 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bourbon Society 3.50 1.1 2-1
14 14 Papa Yo 6.00 1.2 2-1
12 12 Laughnowcrylater 2.50 1.2 2-1
10 10 Did It Dialed 12.00 2.1 4-1
13 13 Excel Calculator 4.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Utopian 20.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Baytown Bruiser 10.00 4.2 8-1
11 11 Anthonian 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Anglican 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Beyond Best 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Moral 12.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Tyler’s Turn 12.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Fountain Run 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

Exit mobile version