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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, November 21, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 First Player 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Sir Bahjy 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Authentic Gallop 10.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Zambezi 2.00 2.1 4-1
5 5 Hailstorm 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Solid Left 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Total Heart 15.00 1 2-1
3 3 Mombayla 4.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Alongcomesawoman 1.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Gold Del Mar 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Starlit Sofi 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Minnesota Rose 30.00 3 6-1
4 4 Star Watch 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Birthday Girl 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Come to Papa 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Morlock 1.20 1.2 2-1
9 9 Lebombo 6.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Big Rog 20.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mo Town Jazz 15.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Mi Compadre 20.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Ky Do Declare 12.00 5 10-1
8 8 Concrete Cruiser 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Or Magique 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cloud Number Nine 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Classy Emily 30.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Queen’s Legacy 15.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Sand Queen 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Adalene 4.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Sang 3.50 4 7-1
5 5 Bold Baby Tender 15.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Lady Pippa 5.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Brave Samantha 12.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Reya Sunshine 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Pauline’s Angel 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Infiltrate 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Easy Wind 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 East Village 4.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 So Special 8.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Patrol Squad Six 3.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Swamp King 15.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Time for Money 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Herbs Bolt 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Show Me the Munny 4.00 1.5 3-1
11 11 Midway Munny 12.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 September Silver 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Honor Bound 20.00 4.4 8-1
10 10 Coal Fired 12.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Orville’s Map 3.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Rebel With a Cause 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Talmadge 10.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Royal Sapphire 15.00 8.5 16-1
9 9 Put Me in Coach 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Feasible 12.00 1 2-1
4 4 Brunch With Amy 2.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 Vino Frizzante 6.00 2.9 6-1
1 1 Aunt Mo 3.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Atlantic Passage 5.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Sugar Hi 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Oak Alley 20.00 5 9-1
10 10 Reign Champagne 20.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Late to the Game 20.00 8.4 16-1
9 9 Moon Over Choctaw 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Lady Iva 2.50 1 2-1
13 13 Auntie 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 Miss Pharaoh 3.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Don’t Look Now 6.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Clairita 4.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Click Here 15.00 8.2 16-1
1 1 Third Kiss 15.00 12.3 23-1
2 2 Real Assay 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Worry Be Gone 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Eenymeanymightymo 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Coastal Cabin 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Thames 3.50 SCRATCH
7 7 Chere Amia 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Twolatebabydoll (FR) 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Capital Idea 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Catching Freedom 2.50 2.9 6-1
5 5 Jayhawk 15.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Mackman 12.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Prince of Power 15.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Best Actor 15.00 6.1 11-1
4 4 Not This Boy 1.60 SCRATCH
1 1 Gun Party 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Fleeting Moon 8.00 1 2-1
12 12 R Kendl 6.00 3 6-1
11 11 Fizzy Lass 3.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Legal Lightning 6.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Poppy Woppy 20.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Miss Blanco 10.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Noulikeabook 8.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Halfway to Omaha 4.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 My Sweet Agenda 30.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Lady Got Game 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Cara Felce 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Smart Little Lass 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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