Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | G Rocks | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stay Beautiful | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Midnight Flight | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beautiful McKinzie | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Golexgo | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Broadway Musical | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flying for Triumph | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Starlit Nite | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cinnamon Sugar | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Aye Bay Bay | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dos Amores | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Celestial Harmony | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lady Virago | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet Espresso | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Patty Van Twinkle | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Promises to Dance | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Copper Em | 2.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Always Angels | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Curlin’s Magic | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Argan | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kirin | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sexagenarian | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ravin’s Ransom | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shan | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Charbonnay | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bottles | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Math Tutor | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Princess Attitude | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vina Arana (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Low Key in Love | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tricky Kitty | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Caitlin Time | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Something Stronger | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Good Game | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Appellate | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Go Go | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Feeling Beachy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tetiaroa | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Bijou Baby | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Modarosa | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Sexy Blonde | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Freak City | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cotillard | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Justice Addition | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Desperate Dreams | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Souperrazzledazzle | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lets Shance It | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Crevalla de Vil | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Miss Mo Magic | 12.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Howyoudosomething | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Honorisia | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Constructively | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Lady Upstart | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Warm Up the Bus | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sonic Sass | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
| 6 | 6 | California Smoke | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Magnolia | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Chiquita’s Way | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hope Rising | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Wits and Wagers | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Manage Xpectations | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aggro | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mizmalice | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | I Had That One Too | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bump in the Night | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lilmorecraken | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ladan | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fasta Lavista Baby | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fourfiftyseven | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Joke Maker | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Touch of Magic | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kayla’s Komet | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Never Said No | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Off the Payroll | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Marjoram | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Aunt Sheryl | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | More Coffee | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tapajo Belle | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Easy Effort | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thunderhawk | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Riddle Solver | 4.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Good Lord | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Timing Difference | 6.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bob’s Carrot | 6.00 | 1.9 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Colonel Caliente | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Chalk | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Comes a Time | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lou’s Legacy | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Forty Love | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brody | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Michael’s Cove | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Commonwealth Turf S.) – Commonwealth Turf S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Troubleshooting | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Giocoso | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chapman’s Peak | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Montador | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mansetti | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Flying Mohawk | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Simulate | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Anegada | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Plensa | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | California Burrito | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Outrunner | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Just Asap | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Horse of the Sea | 4.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sleepingonfreedom | 4.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Colt Forty Seven | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Big Apple Patrick | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Politics | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Vitruvian Man | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Brazilian Conexao | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Collecting | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tisum | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Seal Bay | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.