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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 P. O. S. H. Posh 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Berlinwin 4.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Frosty for Ever 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Zen Yoga 5.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Denise Says No 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 My Secret Dreams 8.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Real N Spectacular 12.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 El Ma’any 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Amazing Lady 15.00 8 15-1
10 10 Crab Rangoon 15.00 8 15-1
11 11 Rose Street 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 R Pretty Kitty 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mindy’s Union 2.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Daring Hope 3.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 B D’s Angel 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Day Dawning 10.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Jerseys Parade 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Extreme Dream 12.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Hand It Over 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tiz in Sight 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Valala 3.50 1.2 2-1
9 9 Ohoopee 4.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Tiz China 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Ashkenazi 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Magic Seeker 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Little Sam’s 12.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Wrong Shoes 20.00 6 11-1
8 8 The Little Sultana 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Brave Blend 1.60 1 2-1
5 5 Purse Thief 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Tis Charming 5.00 2 4-1
7 7 Atlantic Dancer 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Express Line 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Clear Echo 12.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Man of Quality 20.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Sand Cast 20.00 6.2 12-1
4 4 Sneaky Feet 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Miss Soothsayer 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Naughty by Nature 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Victor Valley 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Bourbon Notes 6.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Ships Inn 8.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Point in Time 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Trutap 12.00 7.9 15-1
14 14 Black Magic River 12.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Yes Julia 15.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 Bad Auddie 15.00 10.2 19-1
11 11 Nanzig 15.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Gianna 20.00 14 26-1
5 5 Fogg Cove 20.00 14 26-1
13 13 The Pretty One 20.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Don’t Ghost Me 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 D Bigalow 3.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Game and Smart 6.00 2.4 5-1
11 11 Homer’s Odyssey 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Wobbegong 10.00 4 8-1
10 10 The Exodus Twist 10.00 4 8-1
2 2 Flick 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Fight Time 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Gun Fire 12.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Cinister Cix 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Zapping Strike 30.00 12 23-1
7 7 Bossofmi 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Motown Dynamic 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Outrageously 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Devil Pays in Gold 5.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Altered Shot 6.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Problematica 6.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Divine Gal 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Miranda’s Rocky 15.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Little Blaze 20.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Lady Riley 20.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Lucky Phoenix 30.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Takethesilver 50.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sharp Mindset 3.00 1 2-1
12 12 Bonne Sante 3.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Cynical Humor 5.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Gerber Daisy 8.00 5.1 10-1
13 13 Cinq a Sept 10.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Mundy Sweep 10.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Buckeye Favorite 12.00 8.4 16-1
11 11 Kentucky Mule 12.00 8.4 16-1
4 4 Cardiff Reef 12.00 8.4 16-1
5 5 Just a Minute 12.00 8.4 16-1
2 2 Diamondintherough 15.00 10.9 21-1
6 6 Great Kerry Lee 15.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Tap Now 15.00 10.9 21-1
15 15 Crown of Violence 20.00 15 28-1
14 14 Flirtatious B 20.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Golden Irish 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Going Steady 4.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Speighter Woman 5.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Spun Candy 5.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Trust Fund Philly 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Foie Gras 6.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Tipsy Tammy 10.00 7.2 14-1
2 2 She Called 12.00 9 17-1
4 4 Murphy Girl 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Crazy Cami 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Brooklynn Drew 3.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Romantic Dancer 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Showers 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Antique Silver 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Kentucky Smokeshow 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Commanded 10.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 From Scratch 20.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Little Sister Sue 30.00 11 21-1
4 4 Sister Carlie 30.00 11 21-1
8 8 Royalewithcheese 30.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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