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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, November 26, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Berlinwin 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 P. O. S. H. Posh 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 My Secret Dreams 8.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Crab Rangoon 15.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Zen Yoga 5.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Amazing Lady 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Frosty for Ever 5.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Denise Says No 6.00 5 9-1
8 8 El Ma’any 12.00 7.6 14-1
5 5 Real N Spectacular 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Rose Street 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 R Pretty Kitty 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mindy’s Union 2.50 3.5 7-1
7 7 Extreme Dream 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Jerseys Parade 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 B D’s Angel 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Day Dawning 10.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Hand It Over 15.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Daring Hope 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Valala 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Ohoopee 4.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Magic Seeker 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Ashkenazi 4.50 5.5 10-1
8 8 The Little Sultana 30.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Little Sam’s 12.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Wrong Shoes 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Tiz in Sight 3.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Tiz China 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Brave Blend 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Tis Charming 5.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Purse Thief 3.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Atlantic Dancer 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Man of Quality 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Clear Echo 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Express Line 6.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Sand Cast 20.00 6.9 13-1
4 4 Sneaky Feet 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Miss Soothsayer 3.00 1 2-1
11 11 Nanzig 15.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Gianna 20.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Naughty by Nature 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 Bourbon Notes 6.00 4 8-1
3 3 Trutap 12.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Victor Valley 6.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Fogg Cove 20.00 6.4 12-1
12 12 Ships Inn 8.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Point in Time 10.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Yes Julia 15.00 10 19-1
13 13 The Pretty One 20.00 11 21-1
10 10 Bad Auddie 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Black Magic River 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Homer’s Odyssey 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 D Bigalow 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Game and Smart 6.00 3.3 6-1
12 12 Don’t Ghost Me 2.50 3.4 6-1
10 10 The Exodus Twist 10.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Wobbegong 10.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Flick 10.00 5 9-1
3 3 Zapping Strike 30.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Cinister Cix 20.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Bossofmi 30.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Fight Time 12.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Gun Fire 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Motown Dynamic 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Altered Shot 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Devil Pays in Gold 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Miranda’s Rocky 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Outrageously 3.50 5.4 10-1
7 7 Little Blaze 20.00 6.2 12-1
5 5 Takethesilver 50.00 10.1 19-1
11 11 Lucky Phoenix 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Divine Gal 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Problematica 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Lady Riley 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Bonne Sante 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Cynical Humor 5.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Sharp Mindset 3.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Cardiff Reef 12.00 4.1 8-1
9 9 Tap Now 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Great Kerry Lee 15.00 6 11-1
8 8 Buckeye Favorite 12.00 6.1 11-1
5 5 Just a Minute 12.00 9.5 18-1
11 11 Kentucky Mule 12.00 9.5 18-1
7 7 Mundy Sweep 10.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 Cinq a Sept 10.00 10.3 19-1
10 10 Gerber Daisy 8.00 10.3 19-1
2 2 Diamondintherough 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Crown of Violence 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Flirtatious B 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Foie Gras 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Golden Irish 3.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Trust Fund Philly 6.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 Spun Candy 5.00 7.1 13-1
9 9 Tipsy Tammy 10.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Speighter Woman 5.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 She Called 12.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Going Steady 4.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Murphy Girl 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Crazy Cami 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Brooklynn Drew 3.50 2.9 5-1
3 3 Showers 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Kentucky Smokeshow 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Romantic Dancer 4.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Sister Carlie 30.00 7 13-1
2 2 Little Sister Sue 30.00 7 13-1
6 6 Antique Silver 8.00 SCRATCH
10 10 From Scratch 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Commanded 10.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Royalewithcheese 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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