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Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, December 4, 2025

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Relevate 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Formaggio 3.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Laylani Lou 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Endless Kiss 10.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Pay the Bills (FR) 20.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Waveless 1.80 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Time to Win 1.00 1 2-1
1 1 Salvation 2.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Love’m Or Liam 6.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Roger Roger 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Tiz Freedom 15.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 Implacable 10.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shadow Surge 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Spirit Dragon 2.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Dark Vector 6.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Tapwrits Temper 5.00 5 9-1
5 5 Ready Set Twirl 15.00 5.9 11-1
1 1 McDiesel 8.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 Pandemic Hero 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Exact Estimate 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Light the Way 3.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Breslau 4.00 1.4 3-1
7 7 Dear Dad 12.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Signator 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Acoustic Ave 2.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Over and Ollie 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Forever to Go 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Will of a Womanne 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Three Nines Fine 3.00 2.5 5-1
6 6 Sassetti 12.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Patience N Grace 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Rare Society 10.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Red Boots 15.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Luminescynt 30.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Red Velvet Cake 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Divine Grace 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Floge 4.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Miss Lao 6.00 2 4-1
2 2 Spring Magic 6.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Foxy Cara 3.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Farm House 8.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Dolce Sera 12.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Rodeo Star 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cut the Cord 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Baron of Sealand 15.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Wynstock 5.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Russian Realm 3.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 King’s Leap 8.00 2 4-1
2 2 Palace Boss 5.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Willintoriskitall 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Alan Turing 6.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Chief Liam 10.00 7.2 14-1
7 7 Dolly’s Bank 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Jungle Glow 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Aero Star 8.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Smilensaycheese 6.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Complex Music 10.00 2 4-1
11 11 Frizzante 3.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Lou 10.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Free Dance 8.00 3 6-1
9 9 Register 3.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Solo Empire 20.00 4.5 9-1
8 8 Elvis Himself 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Two’s a Crowd 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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