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Fair Grounds Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, February 21, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Broadway Star 5.00 1 2-1
3 3 Vanna G 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Instaspeed 8.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Moneyforwednesday 8.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Delightful Halo 12.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Louisiana Woman 4.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Awree 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Contraband Early 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Midnight Halo 4.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Mr. Ronnie 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Little Warrior 6.00 2.9 6-1
9 9 Tap the Tequila 6.00 5 9-1
5 5 Saucy Argument 6.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Hard Kings 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Girlie’s Max 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Night Stick 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sokota 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Urban Ruler 3.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Miracle On Central 6.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Perfect Dial 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Max the Butler 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Brock’s Boy 8.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Le Chiffre 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Lunar Mine 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming) – Starter Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Boitano 1.20 1 2-1
9 9 Z Z’s Prince 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Coin Miner 12.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Twoko Bay 10.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Late September 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Red Road 4.50 5.9 11-1
7 7 Even the Wind 10.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Red Mountain 10.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 I’m Your Man 20.00 9.6 18-1
11 11 Tahoe Run 20.00 10.2 19-1
3 3 Swift as I Am 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kazoom 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Chicanery 3.50 2.8 5-1
1 1 Show Me the Munny 8.00 3.4 7-1
4 4 Damascus Steel 3.50 5.1 10-1
6 6 Midnight Mischief 20.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Leonardo 12.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Impavido 4.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Geaux Sugar 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Nine Part 3.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Monsieur Candy 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Clear as a Bele 3.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Carpis 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Sassi D 15.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Tdz Hint of Power 20.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Charco 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Sounds Like Power 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Swaging 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Sargent Sully 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Great Moment 8.00 4 8-1
4 4 Exhilaration 12.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Puteketeke 4.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Chianti Town 6.00 7 13-1
7 7 Transformational 4.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Hutchinson 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Emmanuel 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Higgins Boat 2.50 1.2 2-1
7 7 Legalize 8.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Presider 3.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 Maycocks Bay 8.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Flying Mohawk 5.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Lukka (CHI) 8.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Point Proven 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Fortuity 5.00 1 2-1
2 2 Little Ditty 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Steel Venom 3.50 2.1 4-1
5 5 Golden Bandit 4.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Allo Enry 8.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 You’re On Mute 4.50 2.9 5-1
9 9 People Force 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Super Wise 20.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Motor City Menace 30.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Crepe Yarns 30.00 7 13-1
4 4 Keys Included 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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