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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 11, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Queen McKinzie 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Lexico 6.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 West Coast Dream 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Galatina 8.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Speed Skater 3.50 2.4 4-1
4 4 Knockonwood 8.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Nuts and Bolts 4.50 4 8-1
3 3 Starbrite Starlite 15.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Buckeye Bombshell 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Beale Street Boy 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Dispersion 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Roundingthird 15.00 2.2 4-1
10 10 Cardinal Union 20.00 2.4 5-1
14 14 Next Time 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 September Silver 5.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Southern Soul 20.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Frosted Mug 8.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Janey’s Flyin 30.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 In the Tank 20.00 10.4 20-1
3 3 Standard Deduction 3.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Wild Cotton 15.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Amador 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Gentleman Jim 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Race for Cover 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Usain Th (URU) 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 King of Hollywood 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fountain Run 12.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Eye Dee Kay 1.60 1.7 3-1
1 1 Hope Joe’s Right 8.00 2 4-1
2 2 Tres Soles 10.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Ice Minister 30.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Non Fungible 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Money Run 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Rockin Robin 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Once Upon a Time 30.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Willowy 30.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Pinto 4.50 4.6 9-1
7 7 Mon Reve 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Cookie’s Run 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Island Barbie 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Shewontbudge 1.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Bella Darling 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Comprehensive 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Magical Factor 15.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Provider 10.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Minotaur 4.00 4 8-1
10 10 Newman 8.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Underappreciated 15.00 4.3 8-1
12 12 Wrathchild 5.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Still Sober 30.00 5 9-1
5 5 Bhatia 12.00 5 9-1
7 7 Ur Benja 30.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Tilson 8.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 Quiet Mischief 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Authentic Strike 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Conquest Warrior 1.80 1.6 3-1
1 1 Excite 3.50 3.8 7-1
4 4 Curlin’s Malibu 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Original Sin 8.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 Septarian 15.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Hard as Life 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Noble Confessor 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Rocky Joy 12.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Sicilian Defense 8.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Arkhipov 1.60 3.5 7-1
8 8 Apophis 30.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Love’m Or Liam 6.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Cinister Cix 20.00 4.2 8-1
5 5 Master of Light 30.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Ciro di Marzio 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lets Shance It 30.00 1 2-1
3 3 Right Timing 2.50 2.1 4-1
12 12 Al Ghadeer 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Haywinii 4.50 4.6 9-1
5 5 She’s Our Ten 8.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Divine Passion 15.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Pharoah’s Affair 20.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 La Rascasse 6.00 8.8 17-1
8 8 Epic Proud Mary 10.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 Arcana 10.00 10.5 20-1
4 4 Rose of San Antone 20.00 11 21-1
11 11 Belle 12.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Jenny Wiley S.) – Jenny Wiley S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Medoro 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Expensive Queen (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Segesta 3.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Pin Up Betty 20.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Dynamic Pricing (IRE) 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Deep Satin 20.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Aussie Girl (IRE) 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Fast Market 30.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Destino d’Oro 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Lush Lips (GB) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stonestreet Lexington S.) – Stonestreet Lexington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Confessional 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Corona de Oro 6.00 2.5 5-1
8 8 Trendsetter 20.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 The Hell We Did 8.00 2.6 5-1
11 11 I Did I Did 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Mister T 30.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Exhibition Only 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Ezum 2.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Ramblin 20.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Decisive Win 15.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Enforced Agenda 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Heeere’s Johnny 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 High Honors 20.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 West End Kid 4.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Starmetal 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Soulman 10.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Terre Haute 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Penn Star 30.00 4.5 8-1
9 9 Sharons Angels 15.00 4.8 9-1
11 11 Coordinator 4.00 6.6 12-1
3 3 Royal Guard 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Edzo Said So 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Mush Carey 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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