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Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, April 16, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Emirates Affair 0.60 1 2-1
6 6 Coastline Hottie 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Devil of Paradis 4.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Sunset Harbour 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 So Far So Good 12.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Ask Amanda 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Scoop 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Castle Pines 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 Paper Run 8.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Grandes Suenos 10.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Sing for Mo Money 12.00 5 10-1
10 10 Trim Castle 15.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Perfect Mo 15.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Blessed Flyer 20.00 8.1 15-1
4 4 Super Saiyajin 20.00 8.1 15-1
9 9 Mr Gerson 20.00 8.1 15-1
1 1 Ruiva 1.60 SCRATCH
2 2 Arctic Wolf 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 American Pope 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Conquering Marin (IRE) 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Lucy McGee 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Headspin 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Aurora Sky 5.00 1.9 3-1
9 9 Llamp 10.00 4.7 9-1
12 12 One Happy Island 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Crescent Sky 20.00 10.3 20-1
11 11 Victor Valley 20.00 10.3 20-1
6 6 Red Beach 20.00 10.3 20-1
4 4 Marcheline 20.00 10.3 20-1
15 15 Loriebeth 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Gellhorn 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Poverty With Aview 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Whiskey Serenade 30.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Swirling Seas 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Avila 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Shangrala Road 1.20 1 2-1
4 4 Mo Work 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Bite and Strike 5.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 White Whale 6.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Attersee 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Fracture 15.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Mo Hair Sam 20.00 8 15-1
5 5 La Houligan 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Just a Touch 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Maycocks Bay 4.50 2.4 5-1
9 9 Judge Davis 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Stars and Strides 12.00 6.1 12-1
10 10 California Burrito 12.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Miranda Rights 15.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 In a Jam 20.00 10 19-1
3 3 Legalize 6.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Big to Do 20.00 10 19-1
8 8 Green Light 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Clairita 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Ivory and Ebony 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Metfardeh 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Union Mist 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Oraia 10.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Quinn’s Promise 20.00 5 9-1
6 6 Missy Bee 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Chapman’s Peak 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Coiled 3.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Concord Green 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Faber 8.00 4.1 8-1
10 10 Mutaawid 10.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Royal Majesty (GB) 10.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Carcano 12.00 6 11-1
3 3 Copper Missile 20.00 10 19-1
5 5 Factor Analysis 20.00 10 19-1
1 1 The Hidden Chamber 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Clooney 2.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Awesome Ruta 3.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 American Law 6.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Time for Trouble 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Trusty Rusty 8.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Liar’s Poker 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Goes the Clown 15.00 6.8 13-1
2 2 Carolo Rapido 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Evening News 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Anglophile 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Event Detail 4.50 1.5 3-1
10 10 Sand Pipes 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Tiztastic 8.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Tonka Warrior 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Smokey Mandate 10.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Noises Off 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Flying Mohawk 15.00 5 9-1
3 3 Common Defense 3.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Innately Good 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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