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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 7, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bold Stand 8.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mula 2.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Go for Rocket 3.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Pampered Prince 4.00 6 11-1
4 4 Hill Country 12.00 6 11-1
8 8 Show Me the Munny 6.00 6.1 11-1
1 1 Consequential 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 King of Salsa 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Urban Planner 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 De’ Medici 2.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 My Noble Knight 3.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Single Dot Yaht 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Time for Trouble 3.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Slim Slow Slider 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 C F V Bullet 15.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 King of Hollywood 8.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gypsy Art 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ink Lies 3.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Himothy 15.00 7.5 14-1
13 13 Mischievous Richie 4.50 7.6 14-1
10 10 Tranquillo 6.00 8 15-1
11 11 Soulman 8.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Ice Wolf 5.00 8.2 15-1
2 2 Final Countdown 30.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Dismiss 12.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Mr. Vaggio 30.00 9.4 18-1
8 8 Caragogo 8.00 9.6 18-1
5 5 Zap d’Etat 12.00 10.5 20-1
12 12 Halley’s Comet 12.00 11.1 21-1
14 14 Tattoo 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Trusty Rusty 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Awesome Ruta 1.40 1.8 3-1
9 9 Pappy’s Revenge 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Eye Dee Kay 2.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Evening News 20.00 4.9 9-1
8 8 Itsinmyblood 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Couperin 12.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Calycanthus 15.00 8 15-1
7 7 Non Fungible 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pedital 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Llamp 3.50 2 4-1
4 4 Cusp of Mischief 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Noroomformischief 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Speightsy Rival 15.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Cookie’s Run 5.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Hot Gamer 2.50 8.7 16-1
6 6 Peggie Castle 30.00 10 19-1
10 10 Rotisserie 8.00 10.2 19-1
9 9 Lindy Can 12.00 10.7 20-1
7 7 Vino Alla Mora 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Heart Headed 10.00 1 2-1
6 6 Higgins Boat 3.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Pitkin 2.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Clever Mischief 4.50 5.5 10-1
7 7 Izzy d’Oro 8.00 6.6 12-1
2 2 Demolition Duke 12.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Alder 20.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Esmark 10.00 8.4 16-1
12 12 In a Jam 15.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Pineland 12.00 10.7 20-1
13 13 Saint in the City 20.00 11.4 22-1
10 10 Big to Do 20.00 12.9 24-1
4 4 Otago 15.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Don’t Even 4.50 1 2-1
3 3 Gaga’s Girl 15.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Mighty Nora 3.50 4.6 9-1
12 12 Sutura 3.00 5.1 10-1
11 11 More Than Hope 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Muskoka Katt 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 Poppy Woppy 12.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 By La Rina 15.00 8.7 16-1
7 7 Maxi Maxi 12.00 8.9 17-1
2 2 Wado Wave 30.00 8.9 17-1
10 10 Little Bit Angel 8.00 9.6 18-1
9 9 Once Upon a Time 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rhythm Lady 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Nelson’s Penny 12.00 3.1 6-1
13 13 Callmeyourmajesty 12.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Turner’s Charm 8.00 5.2 10-1
9 9 Call On Me 4.50 6.3 12-1
5 5 Good Family 3.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Cool American 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Raiding Party (IRE) 2.50 6.8 13-1
12 12 Go to Girl 15.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Soloist 6.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Cooperation (FR) 15.00 9.9 19-1
1 1 Embrace Time 10.00 11.4 22-1
8 8 More Carats 30.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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