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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 8, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Animal Fries 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Cora’s Legacy 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Gypsan 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Temporarilyforever 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Argan 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Night Cry 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Romantic Lead 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Phenomenal Dream 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Wish Carefully 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Aubrey’s Max 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Fast Joker 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tisum 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Odorico 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mister Banderas 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Livehappy 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Catamount 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Gallo de Fuego 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Aerate 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 You Belong Here 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Beau Cup 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Fancy Lady 0.00 1 2-1
12 12 Spare Me 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Fashion Quest 0.00 1 2-1
14 14 Cardiff Reef 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Toast the Star 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Yes Julia 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Victor Valley 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Fregata 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cheddar 0.00 1 2-1
13 13 Vivianite 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Anna of Austria 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Amazon Time 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Cearnach 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Big Dig 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sassy Princess 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sweet Note 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mom’s Cheesecake 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Ce La Vi Charli 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Cervaro Della Sala (GB) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Fantastical 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sanctify 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Somethinabouther 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Exclusive Star 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Liam in the Dust 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Contrary 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bracelet 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lady Ilze (GB) 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Saratoga Special (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Knicks N Stones 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Chairmanoftheboard 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Itchy 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Tilt a Twirl 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Bandstand 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Eleos 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Cerberus 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Captain Mercury 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sparked 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Madaket Road 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tap Me a Song 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Tom Cat Tuesday 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Imagine John 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Ghost Tales 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Editor 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Antrax 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Zakinthos 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fancy Sailor 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 West End Kid 0.00 1 2-1
12 12 Brave Force 0.00 1 2-1
13 13 Chambersville 0.00 1 2-1
14 14 Mischief Ride 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mendels Mate 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Sunrise 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Classic Tap 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Casa Cielo 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Time for America 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Zeus’s Echo 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Exonerate 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Vintur 0.00 1 2-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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