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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 10, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sweet Mary 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Speech and Drama 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 I Know Nothing 4.50 1.7 3-1
7 7 Wine’s Mistress 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Three Sock Sadie 8.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Yalina 10.00 3 6-1
3 3 Sr Seventyone 12.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Angel Life 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Theprincessfactor 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Authentic Angel 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Haleakala 5.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mustang Lady 6.00 2.6 5-1
6 6 Theoretically 8.00 3.3 6-1
1 1 Zen Yoga 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Firebird Suite 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Tiz Salty 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Next Up 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Thatsalrightmama 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Hello Angel 3.50 1.3 2-1
4 4 Country Club 4.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Thea 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Planet Clare 8.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Poema 20.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Gal Capone 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 From Scratch 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Bamtwentyklater 3.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Scribble 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Dolce Vino 5.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Lovely Words 6.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Menkaure 6.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Merry Madison 8.00 2.4 5-1
3 3 California Smoke 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Write Off Jerry 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 Tapit Shoes 4.50 1.2 2-1
6 6 Curahee 5.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Offlee Naughty 6.00 1.9 3-1
10 10 Factor Analysis 6.00 1.9 3-1
9 9 Army Officer 8.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Sugoi 10.00 3.5 7-1
11 11 War Officer 12.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Risk Manager 15.00 5.7 11-1
7 7 Taunting 20.00 7.8 15-1
5 5 Protonic Power 30.00 12 23-1
2 2 The Minkster 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Next Time 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Carcar Express 4.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Start Out 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Richeztoo 5.00 1.5 3-1
11 11 Power Aura 8.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Carson 10.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Cause Ima Boss 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Circle the Storm 15.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Big Nelson 20.00 5 9-1
7 7 Barstool 30.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Kisses From Brazil 30.00 7.3 14-1
12 12 Malevaje 50.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Authentic Patriot 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Rock Music 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Discotheque 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Buntus Foclora 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Pelican Hill 10.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Accord 15.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Barracks 15.00 5.8 11-1
11 11 Torre Eiffel 20.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Blessed Warrior 20.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Stormiest 30.00 11 21-1
9 9 Soho Jimmy 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
14 14 Icona (IRE) 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Competitive Market 3.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 Princess Attitude 4.50 1.8 3-1
12 12 Totally Justified 5.00 2.1 4-1
15 15 Morana 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Sunshine Daydream 6.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Bojaca Blessing 8.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Princess Em Too 10.00 4.9 9-1
11 11 Betty’s Dance 12.00 6 11-1
4 4 Winning Streep 12.00 6 11-1
8 8 Gerlin’s Empire 12.00 6 11-1
10 10 Swing Vote 15.00 7.7 14-1
16 16 Spa Prospector 15.00 7.7 14-1
2 2 Tetiaroa 20.00 10.4 20-1
13 13 State of Joy (IRE) 20.00 10.4 20-1
9 9 Temple Goddess 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Miracle Mark 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Gethsemane 2.50 1.2 2-1
9 9 Hot Property 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Clocker Special 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 White Whale 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Admiral Hall 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Show of Force 15.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 Big Garry 20.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Start Mo Up 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 American Debutante (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Private Property (IRE) 4.00 1.8 3-1
10 10 Elida’s Angel (IRE) 5.00 2.4 4-1
14 14 Just Entitled 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 That Wasn’t Me 6.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Emerald Spun 8.00 4 8-1
12 12 Tulip 12.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Lady Sybil 12.00 6.2 12-1
16 16 Charted Destiny 15.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Wonzee Weather 15.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Empress Sisi 15.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 One Happy Island 20.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Munny Reigns 20.00 10.6 20-1
4 4 Wujood 30.00 16 30-1
5 5 Birch Run 30.00 16 30-1
15 15 In Speight of Zoom 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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