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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 31, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Shadow Coast 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Moroder 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 League of Legends 6.00 3.1 6-1
2 2 Aerate 1.80 3.5 7-1
5 5 Gallo de Fuego 4.50 4.2 8-1
3 3 Homie 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Galatina 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Quinn’s Promise 1.80 2.4 5-1
3 3 Don’t Be Salty 3.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Belle Ofthe Dance 4.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Fermi 4.50 5.8 11-1
2 2 Fresh Out 15.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 State Charmer 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Il Cavallino 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Fast Joker 3.50 2.3 4-1
4 4 Whiskey Shot 4.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Stefan’s Title 4.00 4.1 8-1
1 1 Hardtoblame 8.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Bagg O Time 15.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Romantic Lead 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bebedouro 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Top Gun Tommy 4.00 2 4-1
6 6 Raising Kane 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Upturned Brim 4.50 5.1 10-1
2 2 Lord Majesty 2.50 5.3 10-1
1 1 Illini 20.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Sawyer Fox 10.00 7 13-1
3 3 Forty Love 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Admiral Hall 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Baytown Bruiser 1.80 1.3 2-1
5 5 Truly Legit 4.00 1.4 3-1
2 2 You Ain’t Poppn 6.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Versed 12.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Guardian 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Vino Dominus 4.50 1 2-1
1 1 Carson 3.50 1.5 3-1
10 10 Tims 6.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Mountain Grandeur 10.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Whatever 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Paired 8.00 5.3 10-1
12 12 Chasing Gray 10.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Punkin Boy 12.00 6.4 12-1
6 6 Big Nelson 20.00 9.7 18-1
8 8 Spring St. Dreamer 20.00 10 19-1
4 4 Tlahuicole 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Turn and Run 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Secret Hideaway (IRE) 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Sapphire Beach (IRE) 2.50 1.4 3-1
1 1 Beach Heist 2.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Mony Mony 4.00 1.9 3-1
2 2 Omaha Bay 12.00 3.5 7-1
5 5 Snow Face Princess 12.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Snappy Comeback 15.00 5.2 10-1
3 3 Should’ve 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Civic Charm 8.00 1 2-1
12 12 Interrogator 15.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Hawkeye State 6.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 McCann 6.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Impractical 15.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Campobasso 4.00 9.5 18-1
10 10 Study 5.00 10.2 19-1
9 9 Gadget Play 8.00 10.2 19-1
8 8 Delancey Street 12.00 10.6 20-1
1 1 Max Is Him 15.00 10.7 20-1
6 6 Bigtimetimmyjim 20.00 11 21-1
5 5 Native Brew 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Prize Pick 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Blue Forty Two 20.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Rebel Instinct 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Memory 4.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Noble Affair 10.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Lighter 15.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 I Did I Did 15.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Biloba 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Western Warrior 20.00 9 17-1
5 5 Envision 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Gun Range 4.50 SCRATCH
13 13 Volendam 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 J J Grey 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Culture War 12.00 1 2-1
11 11 Happy Prince 2.50 1.8 3-1
2 2 Both Sides of Bad 4.00 2 4-1
9 9 Fly Guy Mick 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Timestream 8.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Barracks 10.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Champagne Liberal 15.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 West of East Texas 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Thespian 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Power of Will 20.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Hill Country 20.00 11 21-1
12 12 McKinsense 10.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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