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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 11, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Gee No Hollander 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Get Her Number 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Air of Defiance 3.50 3.8 7-1
6 6 Global Sensation 15.00 4 8-1
4 4 Prayforpeace 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Highly Flammable 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Al Amjaad 1.50 1 2-1
1 1 Can’t Stop Willis 4.50 1.1 2-1
4 4 Gentleman Jim 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Mor Cheese Please 5.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Surfin’ M 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Standard Deduction 6.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Disappear 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Argan 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Street Painter 12.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Protomagic 6.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 My Bossy Lady 3.50 5 9-1
1 1 Sunset Harbour 4.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Black Ginger 15.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 First Hill 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lucky Lollipop 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 Clever One 8.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Lady Lux 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 I Know Nothing 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Saint Dymphna 20.00 5 9-1
9 9 First Glance 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Althesia 10.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 It’sthetwentythird 12.00 8 15-1
6 6 Honky Tonk Girl 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 By Grace 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Double Talker 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Rose Ruler 4.00 3 6-1
6 6 Gypsy Art 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Wearebackyoungman 20.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Absolutely Hot 10.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Frontier Justice 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Red Lad 30.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Military Cruiser 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Cinister Cix 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Abrigado 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Island Town 6.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 City of Life 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Ghost Protocol 12.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Grande Sorpreso 15.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Great Moment 4.50 4.5 9-1
7 7 Wolfcamp 20.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Night Watcher 6.00 8 15-1
8 8 Barker 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Cat’s Cave 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 White Rocks 8.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Five a Side 1.40 3 6-1
7 7 Three Coats 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Cervaro Della Sala (GB) 4.50 3.8 7-1
5 5 Flash Wear 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Lovin’ On the Run 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Not That Simple 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Fregata 8.00 1 2-1
10 10 Toast the Star 10.00 1.6 3-1
9 9 Cape Sounion (IRE) 15.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 Ez Connect 3.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Eat Hay Run 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Maiora 12.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Headspin 20.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Hedge Book 6.00 9 17-1
12 12 Bullet Journal 20.00 10.2 19-1
6 6 Anesty 15.00 10.4 20-1
7 7 Electa 12.00 12 23-1
13 13 Beau Cup 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Blackwing 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Redhawk Riddler 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Lady Sybil 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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