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Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 12, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Uncle Evco 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Still a Soldier 3.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Magic Grant 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Guns and Glory 5.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Wish Carefully 6.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Higginsville 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Don’s Last Ride 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 Joe’s Candy 3.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Lennie G 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Major Mack 5.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Cardinal Union 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Bandstand 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Next Time 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Golden Vale 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lit Ship 1.80 1 2-1
7 7 Perfect Figure 3.00 1.3 3-1
8 8 Victor Valley 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 More Galilady 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Just a Minute 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Tiz in Sight 10.00 3.3 6-1
6 6 Miss Lonelle 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Color Comin’ In 20.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Storm Cloud Rising 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Nightmare Fuel 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Prince of Broadway 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Menkaure 4.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Llamp 5.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Heaven’s Bolt 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Final Shipman 6.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Cold Case 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Ducat 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Never Sleep 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Greenwell 4.00 1.3 2-1
4 4 Grand Yaupon 4.50 1.6 3-1
5 5 Balloteer 6.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Midnight Still 6.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Mo Misery 8.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 War Ready 10.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 My Birthday Gift 15.00 7.3 14-1
2 2 Mad Mo 15.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Ditlihi 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Reagan’s Wit 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Baby Max 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Judge Davis 4.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Captain Choochies 5.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Sea Singer (IRE) 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Smokey Mandate 10.00 4.4 8-1
9 9 Adios Cole 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Britain’s Kitten 15.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Dance Some Mo 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 She’s Gotta Go 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Whispering Charm 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Command the Stars 4.50 1.7 3-1
5 5 Nola Louise 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Cloud Number Nine 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Sweetbitters 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 High Grace 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Twice as Wise 15.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Chiquita’s Way 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Impavido 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Tripp’s Promise 3.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Join 4.00 1.7 3-1
2 2 Rochester 6.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 McFasty 8.00 3.5 7-1
3 3 Perfect Audible 10.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Damascus Steel 12.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Kid Twist 15.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Horsetron Supreme 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Twirling Claire 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Triskelion 3.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Something Stronger 4.50 2 4-1
10 10 Z Z’s 6.00 2.8 5-1
8 8 If If If 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Rational Theory 10.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Blushing Justice 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Sweet Surrender 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Bourbon Notes 15.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Lilies N Paradise 20.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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