Each of the 68 teams selected to the NCAA basketball tournament celebrated when they saw their name flash on the TV screen at their respective watch parties on Sunday.
Whether it was a No. 1 seed or a team participating in the 16-seed play-in game, there was a mood of excitement and jubilation. But a dark cloud hovers over four teams in the tournament. For the 5 seeds, they must overcome a dramatic history that has plagued the favorites for years.
The No. 12 seed has upset a No. 5 seed 41 times in the modern era of the tournament. To add to that, in the past three seasons, the No. 5 seed has fallen 66-percent of the time.
The odds are clearly not in their favor, though they should be.
This year’s crop of five seeds include: West Virginia in the Midwest, Northern Iowa in the East, Arkansas in the West and Utah in the South. Unlike a 16-seed beating a 1-seed, these teams could all be going home sooner than they originally planned.
Buffalo looks to knock off the Mountaineers, Wyoming could beat the Panthers, Wofford might stop the Razorbacks and Stephen F. Austin has the experience to topple the Utes.
SFA has been in this position before, as a No. 12 seed, when they beat VCU in last year’s tournament. VCU, a former Cinderella story in the tournament, fell to the Lumberjacks, 77-75. It was Stephen F. Austin’s first ever win in the tournament.
This year’s version of last year’s VCU team is the Northen Iowa Panthers. In 2010, as a No. 9 seed, UNI beat UNLV in the first round, then pulled off the unthinkable by defeating No. 1 seed Kansas to advance to the Sweet 16. The Panthers were eventually defeated by Final Four team Michigan State, but behind the sweet shooting of Ari Farokmanesh, UNI remains one of the best March basketball stories of the past decade.
The Panthers are back in the tournament for the first time since their last magical run. They compiled a 30-3 record and won the Missouri Valley Conference title. Seth Tuttle was the conference’s player of the year and could be this year’s version of Farokmanesh. But this time, the roles are reversed. UNI gained respect five years ago and were a force to be reckoned with in the regular season. The Panthers gained the respect of the choosing committee by receiving a No. 5 seed. Wyoming, out of the Mountain West Conference, is also a mid-major. So, this match up may be the least likely to be considered a national upset. The Cowboys last made the tournament in 2002 when they fell in the second round.
National pundits are looking at Buffalo to give West Virginia the horns. The Bulls are riding the best season of their exactly 100 years of basketball existence as MAC champions and appearing in their first NCAA tournament.
The coaching match up between WVU and Buffalo is unique with an old-school vs. new-school flare. The Bulls are led by former Duke star and first round NBA draft pick Bobby Hurley, who has just been on the job for two years. Bob Huggins leads his alma mater after nearly 30 decades of coaching at the highest level. He’s also second among active coaches in all-time wins. The Mountaineers, though, limp into the tournament after an early exit from the Big 12 tournament. Also, their postseason past in recent history is anything but stellar. They were bounced by Georgetown in last year’s NIT and two years ago were dismissed by Gonzaga in the tournament’s first round. WVU is five years removed from a Final Four appearance. If the Mountaineers are to avoid this upset, senior guards Gary Browne and Juwan Staten must prove they are 100-percent fine from their recent injuries that held them out for the previous six games.
In the West, Arkansas hopes to revive its golden years but must look out for upset-minded Woffod. The Razorbacks won the title in 1994 and were runners-up in 1995. This is their first appearance in the tournament since 2008 and first under head coach Mike Anderson. He remembers the glory days personally as an assistant under legendary coach Nolan Richardson for nearly two decades. Anderson is building his own dynasty in Arkansas, but to avoid a national catastrophe, he has to evade the Terriers. The Southern Conference champions are in the tournament for the fourth time in five years, so Wofford wins the experience battle in this match up, which may not make it the upset that the seven-space of seeds indicate that it could be. The Terriers do not have the deep runs that Northern Iowa, VCu or George Mason can tout, as they’ve also been dismissed in the first round of those four tournaments. However, this contest could be the second most-likely to end in the 12-seed win.