The countdown is starting to get low with only 13 days until the Cubs and Cardinals kick off the 2015 baseball season. This week’s preview focuses on the American League, my picks for division winners, and my pick for who will be awarded the AL pennant.
AL West (teams listed in order of predicted finish)
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (team over/under 88.5, Prediction 93 Wins)
Led by once in a lifetime talent Mike Trout, the Angels are my pick to win the AL West. This is probably the best division in the AL with 3 teams who could make a legitimate playoff push. The Angels are a strong contender to capture their 5th division crown since 2007. They should also continue the trend of teams holding the AL West crown for multiple seasons (the last team to not win multiple AL West titles in a row was the 2006 A’s).
With Trout leading the offense again, the Angels will score a ton of runs (they led MLB with 773 last season) and I expect that trend to continue in 2015. Trout has a career WAR of 28.2 at 23. Paul Konerko had a career WAR of 28.1 in 18 seasons to put how incredible he has been in perspective. As long as Pujols continues to put up solid numbers behind Trout, this Angels team will be successful.
Seattle Mariners (team over/under 86.5, Prediction 90 Wins)
My second favorite team to watch this year may end up being the Seattle Mariners. How can you not love this team? King Felix, Cano, Seager, Cruz, Jackson, yes please! Nelson Cruz is going to fit perfectly in this lineup and he will take some pressure off Cano. If Austin Jackson can play more consistently, this lineup could rival the Angels for best offense in the division.
Oakland A’s (team over/under 81.5, Prediction 81 Wins)
Every year, the A’s seem to take a team that doesn’t look that impressive and string together a great season. As a full believer in Billy Beane, I think this is a team that should be in the hunt come September. Watch for some sneaky good Billy Beane moves with Spring Training ending soon. I do not believe the team we are seeing now is going to be the one we see even as soon as June out in the Bay Area.
Houston Astros (team over/under 75.5, Prediction 78 Wins)
The Houston Astros have stripped their team down and started a long, perfectly planned rebuilding process. Now is the time they should start seeing the fruits of their efforts. The Astros might end up being the team everyone in baseball wants the Cubs to be—the young fun team that sneaks in a wild card and America falls in love with.
Texas Rangers (team over/under 76.5 wins, Prediction 68 Wins)
Condolences to the Texas Rangers fans, but I am just not a believer. Injuries have killed this team before and it looks like 2015 may be a repeat of an injury-ridden 2014. Darvish and Profar are done for the year and their core of veterans isn’t getting any younger. One bright spot of this season for the Rangers is the potential for Elivs Andrus to take a big step this year. He has “late bloomer” written all over him and his age 26 season may be the time he takes that leap.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians (team over/under 84.5, Prediction 87 wins)
The Indians have the reigning AL Cy Young winner whose FIP suggests he was unlucky last season (FIP-2.35/ERA-2.44) and he is just now entering his prime. They have my number one bounceback candidate in Kipnis, whose BABIP dropped almost 60 points last season which could indicate some bad luck. And they have Yan Gomes, who won the Silver Slugger at catcher last season. Overall, it’s a team that could not only win the division but make some noise into October.
Chicago White Sox (team over/under 81.5, Prediction 84 wins)
Do the White Sox have the best pitching rotation nobody is talking about? Do they have the second best rotation in baseball? My answer to both of those questions is yes. Chris Sale is a legit ace at only 25 years of age. Jeff Samardzija is right up there with Grienkie and Scherzer as the best number 2s in baseball, although his fly ball tendencies in the Cell can be worrisome. Jose Quintana put up 200 innings and a 3.32 ERA and he is going to be the number 3 starter. On other teams, he could certainly be the number 1 or 2 guy. His FIP was also 2.81 which suggests he pitched much better that his 3.32 ERA. Their most valuable piece, however, is Jose Abreu. With power at an all-time low in baseball, having someone like Abreu that can absolutely mash is huge. If Abreu puts up the MVP numbers he is capable of, expect the Sox to be in the race come September.
Detroit Tigers (team over/under 84.5, Prediction 83 Wins)
The reports of the Tigers demise have been overblown. This is still a solid ball club. Price leads the rotation and Verlander should be more like Cy Young Verlander than what we have seen recently. The general rule with the Tigers is they will be in the playoff race until Miguel Cabrera stops being Miguel Cabrera.
Kansas City Royals (team over/under 80.5, Prediction 81 Wins)
The reigning AL Champs captured the hearts of American last year. This year they may be a 4th place ball club. The loss of Shields hurts a team that has always been offensively challenged. Expect them to struggle to keep up with teams that have players like Jose Abreu and Miguel Cabrera.
Minnesota Twins (team over/under 72.5, Prediction 68 Wins)
Minnesota fans, keep your head up because Byron Buxton is for real. You know how someone who knows nothing about basketball can tell within 5 minutes that LeBron James is the best player on the court? I saw Buxton play two years ago in Low A ball and that is exactly what it was like watching Buxton. He was just different. And if you want to argue that it was only Low A ball, know that Albert Almora and Miguel Sano who are both top prospects were playing in that game as well. This may not be the Twins year, but a change is coming.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles (team over/under 82.5, Prediction 88 Wins)
The AL East is another division of good but not great teams. I predict the O’s taking the title with only 88 wins. Buck Showalter is one of those managers that can actually add a few wins to his teams each year. I also look forward to watching Manny Machado return to the field.
Boston Red Sox (team over/under 86.5, Prediction 83)
I am not buying the Red Sox moves this offseason. They seem to be the consensus pick according to win the East. People realize they won only 71 games and rounded out the bottom of the AL East last season, right? Hanley Ramirez should put quite a few dents into the side of the monster this season, but the Sox fail to make the playoffs.
New York Yankees (team over/under 81.5, Prediction 79)
The Yankees have spent more time retiring numbers of above average players then actually acquiring above average players lately. The Yankees are the overvalued poster children in a division that is consistently overvalued.
Toronto Blue Jays (team over/under 82.5, Prediction 76)
Marcus Stroman will not being playing baseball this year and that is bad news for Blue Jays fans. A team that went for it a couple of years ago is now going to see things slowly deteriorate. Stroman was the piece the Jays front office was planning on rebuilding around, but they will now have to wait and see how his ACL rehab goes.
Tampa Bay Rays (team over/under 78.5, Prediction 72)
The Rays lost Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman this offseason, both of whom were hugely responsible for pulling the Rays out of their yearly spot in the cellar. With those two gone, the Rays will return to the cellar.. This isn’t just a problem the Rays will have to overcome this one season; this is an organizational fork in the road. The Rays are strapped with so many things they have to overcome—their stadium, lack of attendance, lack of fan interest, and lack of payroll. If things start snowballing in a bad way for this team, we may not only be looking at a return of the Devil Rays performance-wise but also a move out of Tampa.
Playoff Predictions
Wild Card: Mariners over White Sox
ALDS: Mariners over Angels; Indians over Orioles
ALCS: Mariners over Indians