Can the Returning Kyle Busch Qualify for the Chase?

Kyle Busch is returning this weekend from his leg injury suffered the day before the Daytona 500.  NASCAR announced this morning that they have granted Kyle Busch an exemption for the following rules.

  • Must attempt to qualify for all races. Obviously, he has not attempted to qualify for any race since his injury
  • Must start all races for which he/she has qualified. Busch did not start the Daytona 500 due to his broken leg.

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With both of those exemptions granted, Busch is now eligible for the NASCAR postseason, the Chase for the Cup.  Finishing in the top 16 in points is pretty much impossible at this point, after missing 11 races.  Busch will qualify, however, should he win a race and finish in the top 30 in driver points.

Right now, Tony Stewart is in 30th place in the NASCAR standings with 179 points.  That is the number Busch must catch.  If Stewart keeps that average (currently at 16.27 points per race), he’ll have 423 points after 26 races.  Kyle Busch would have to average 28.2 points per race to finish with 423 points.  That’s a finish of 16th or better every week for the rest of the season to get there.  The margin of error is razor thin.  He can finish in the 30’s once, but if it happens twice, those top 16’s turn into needing tip 10’s every week.  Of course a win would help, and earn him an extra 4 bonus points (3 for the win, and 1 for leading a lap), but the key to any chance to qualify will be consistent quality racing.

Do not be surprised to see Busch stay out during an early caution to “steal a point.”  The trick usually used by the J.J. Yeley’s or Alex Bowman’s of the world should be used weekly by Kyle Busch.  That’s 15 free points, which can help offset an untimely wreck in the long run.  Every point is important.

The other roadblock Busch would run into is if there are 16 winners overall after 26 weeks. The odds of that are slim, but it is possible.  There have been eight different winners over the first eleven races.  If you are a fan of Kyle Busch, you should root for as many repeat winners as possible.  It would be much better for Busch’s chances if Kevin Harvick or Denny Hamlin won again rather than Kasey Kahne or Jeff Gordon grabbing their first win of the season.  It’s more than likely that the total of individual winners will be around 12 or 13, so Busch should be fine in that regard.

Finishing in the top 30 will be more difficult than actually winning a race.  Busch has 13 career wins on the remaining fifteen tracks, including four at Richmond, the last track before the chase begins.  It would be high drama if Busch could get in with a win that weekend, something that I’m sure NASCAR and Joe Gibbs Racing is rooting for.