The baseball season is a long process, and to make snap judgements about a team based on a small sample of games can often prove to be foolish. Where teams rank within the division at the end of May is by no means an indicator of where they will be when September rolls around. While some of the teams currently bringing up the rear in their divisions will be able to climb the ladder, there is a good chance that many will remain where they are. Let’s show some love to the clubs currently occupying the basement, as we look at how they got there and whether or not they might be able to turn their seasons around.
AL East:
Team – Blue Jays
Record – 18-24 (4.5 games behind)
Struggles – Pitching. The Blue Jays have so far put up the worst pitching numbers in the American League, surrendering the most home runs and walks of any team while posting a league-worst ERA of 4.81. Though they are averaging 5.25 runs per game on offense, putting pressure on your hitters to score 5 runs every day is not a recipe for success.
Strengths – Bats. Joey Bats, baseball bats, all bats have been strong for Toronto this season. Off-season acquisition Josh Donaldson has lived up to the high expectations that he set with the A’s last season, while resident sluggers Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are driving in runs at a rapid pace (despite both having sub .250 batting averages). In addition to the mainstays in the middle of the lineup, rookie Devon Travis and catcher Russell Martin have both notched over 20 RBIs and each have an over .800 OPS (Martin leads the team at an impressive .953).
Odds of improvement – Chances are that the Blue Jays will not remain in last place for long. With the difference between first and last in the AL East at a mere 4.5 games, the basement of the division has been a revolving door thus far. No team in the East has both the hitting and the pitching to run away with things, and the Blue Jays’ offense seems like the strongest asset to be found among the bunch. The pitching has been abysmal in the early going, but Mark Beurhle and RA Dickey are proven veterans who aren’t about to panic after a rough start to the season. The teams in the East will beat up on each other all season, but don’t expect the Blue Jays to be hanging out in last for long.
AL Central:
Team – Cleveland Indians
Record – 16-23 (9.5 games behind)
Struggles – Mediocrity abound. The Indians find themselves in the middle of the pack in just about every statistical category. Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis have been exceptional at the plate, while Carlos Santana, David Murphy, and Brandon Moss have been exceptionally streaky. After those five hitters there is a steep dropoff, which accounts for their batting numbers being right around league average. An average lineup is not enough to carry a team, especially when that team has had below average pitching and currently possesses the second worst defense in the league. While no single area seems to be the Indians’ fatal flaw, their mediocrity in all aspects of the game has proven to be their downfall in the first two months of the season.
Strengths – The Indians have a handful of spectacularly talented players. Corey Kluber, though he got off to a rough start to the season, is still the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and has struck out 30 batters in his last two starts. Meanwhile, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis each sport an OPS over .900, with Kipnis in the top 10 in just about every offensive category. However, the difference between the Indians’ three best players and the rest of the team has proven to be too vast to find much success throughout April and May.
Odds of improvement – The Indians were a popular pick to succeed before the 2015 season due to their statistically oriented front office, World Series-winning manager, and their handful of potentially great players. With Kluber returning to his 2014 form, the Indians seem poised for a better showing in the coming months. According to FanGraphs, Cleveland also has the best playoff odds of any of the current last place teams with a 26.6% chance of snagging a postseason berth. All of this would seem promising if it weren’t for the two teams sitting atop the American League Central: the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers and Royals have shown that they are forces to be reckoned with, and may be the best teams in the American League. Even if the Indians pick up the pace, third place may be the best finish they can hope for, which will at least give them front row seats to the best division race in the league.
AL West:
Team – Oakland Athletics
Record – 14-28 (13.5 games behind)
Struggles – The defense and bullpen have been disastrous for the A’s. On Tuesday, Oakland ended a streak of 15 straight games in which they committed at least one error (their shortstop Marcus Semien has already racked up 15 on the season). The bullpen has a 4.70 ERA and specializes in surrendering runs in close games. In fact, Oakland’s relievers are on pace to post a “Win Probability Added” of -14 (that’s negative 14), which would be the worst of all time. This historically bad bullpen and humorously poor fielding help to explain why the A’s currently sport the worst record in the Majors.
Strengths – Starting pitching. Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, and Jesse Chavez lead one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Gray currently has the second best pitching WAR in the Majors and is rocking a 1.92 ERA. The hitters have not been too shabby either, with Stephen Vogt, Josh Reddick, and Marcus Semien hitting for both power and average.
Odds of improvement – Outlook not good. A strong pitching rotation can carry a team deep into the postseason, but unfortunately for the A’s, FanGraphs projects them as having a 5.3% chance of making the playoffs. Even with strong pitching and a solid lineup, if your bullpen cannot protect a lead and your defense gives away outs every game, wins will continue to be hard to come by.