Everyone is trying to figure out the Minnesota Twins’ surprising hot start.
As Tom Schreier of Twins Daily writes, a smoke machine and bad dancing has helped the team loosen up and relax. Jason Feldman at The Post-Bulletin points to the possible impact new head coach Paul Molitor has had on the club. Veteran Torii Hunter’s second stint with the team has certainly helped establish a winning culture in the locker room.
The advanced statistics, however, indicate that Minnesota is leading the A.L. Central due to one defining factor: clutch hitting.
tOPS+, a statistic that compares how a player/team performs in a particular split compared to their overall performance, proves the Twins get the job done when the pressure is on. As a team, Minnesota has posted a 126 tOPS+ in “high-leverage” situations with a combined .290 batting average, .340 on-base percentage and .435 slugging percentage—a significant increase in performance compared to their overall team line of .252 BA, .304 OBP and .382 SLG. Only the Angels boast a better high-leverage tOPS+ (130) than Minnesota. The Twins, however, are even more clutch with runners in scoring position (141 tOPS+) and with runners in scoring position with two outs (149 tOPS+).
Joe Mauer and Hunter have been particularly good when it counts at the plate—with Mauer posting a staggering 302 tOPS+ in all high-leverage situations and a 200 tOPS+ with runners in scoring position and two outs and Hunter posting a 151 tOPS+ and 276 tOPS+ in the same categories. Trevor Plouffe has also gotten in on the fun, posting a 132 tOPS+ in all high-leverage situations.
Unfortunately for Twins fans, these figures look unlikely to remain this high. As a team, Minnesota is far above the Seattle Mariners’ major league-leading 119 tOPS+ posted with runners in scoring position last season and its aforementioned clutch hitters, Mauer, Hunter and Plouffe, are also hitting far above their career tOPS+ stats in these categories. While it’s certainly possible this could be a career year in clutch hitting for these players and the club as a whole, there’s bound to be some regression in the coming months.
This is why Minnesota is going to need to improve their more pedestrian stats in other categories to keep piling up wins.
The Twins currently rank below the league average in batting categories such as team OBP (.304) and team OPS+ (92) and rank second-to-last and last in pitching categories hits per nine innings (9.6) and strikeouts per nine innings (5.8). Their pitch-to-contact style—they’re also near the bottom of the league in walks allowed per nine innings—doesn’t figure to hold up considering their poor defense, which ranks among the bottom of MLB in park-adjusted defensive efficiency.
To boot, Minny trots out a team that’s worth -0.9 wins above the average by position—not exactly a testament to continued success.
There’s also the fairly weak schedule they’ve faced to consider.
Of the 11 teams Minnesota has played, only four are .500 or above: the Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates. The Twins haven’t exactly rose to the occasion in these games, either—posting a 9-11 mark overall with a 5-10 record against division foes Kansas City and Detroit.
Before the month is over, however, they’ll be forced to tangle again with the Royals (30-22), Texas Rangers (29-26), St. Louis Cardinals (37-18) and Chicago Cubs (28-25). It doesn’t get any easier in July, with four-game sets vs. KC and Detroit, a West Coast road trip with three games against the Los Angeles Angels (28-27), three games with the New York Yankees (30-25) and two more interleague games with the Pirates.
So while clutch hitting has offered an unexpected recharge to a stagnant franchise, the real shock will be felt if Minnesota continues to win against MLB’s elite in spite of what the numbers tell us: they’re average at-best.