After the predictable and produced “outrage” that followed the College Football Playoff initial rankings, the Committee was mostly validated this past weekend. The biggest outcry was over Alabama’s presence in the top four even with a loss to a two-loss team (Ole Miss). Talking heads and bloggers everywhere took up the cause on behalf of so many slighted schools who remained undefeated and were … so the argument went … more worthy than ‘Bama of a place in the top four. However once the teams took the field again this past weekend, the initial rankings of the Committee started to look pretty darn good and the dissenting argument pretty darn weak.
The New Top Four
Here’s the new top four just released by the Committee:
- Clemson
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Notre Dame
So where is the outrage this week?
It shouldn’t be over Alabama. Fans still miffed by Bama’s ranking just aren’t watching the games. They are for real. They are an illustration of why the Committee talks about “the eye test.” It’s likely the controversy will not end even when the regular season ends. It’s possible at this point we’ll have an undefeated team from one of the big five conferences to be get left out. Not a certainty of course, but a possibility. More on that in a moment …
If fans want to express their outrage over any of the current final four, it should be The Ohio State University. OSU is benefiting from a traditional school of thought, which says you give the benefit of the doubt to the defending champs. It’s an archaic way of thinking that I believe the Committee will eventually move away from in the years to come. I’m not saying OSU doesn’t deserve to be in the conversation. I am saying I don’t see a compelling argument as to how or why they are better than Iowa, Baylor, or Oklahoma State.
Instead I expect social media, message boards and blog posts to turn their wrath on the Fighting Irish. While it pains me to be a ND apologist, it’s hard to argue against their strength of schedule. Yes, they have one loss … to the #1 team in the country on the road. They’ve still got some important games coming up, but I agree the Committee got it right it putting Notre Dame in the four … for now.
Now is time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Some teams don’t have a chance, despite what the polls show or what they think. It’s a cold bucket of reality that somebody has to throw. Here’s my breakdown of the three teams more likely to jump into the four before the end of the season, the three that are pretenders, and three dark horses.
Who Still Has a Chance
- Baylor – More than any team in the country, the Baylor Bears control their own destiny. If they win out, they’re in. Period. It would unfathomable to deny an defeated, Big 12 champ a spot in the playoffs. The Big 10 and Pac 12 are both down this year and if anyone’s getting shut out, it’s them. Additionally, Baylor is one of the most exciting teams in the country and part of what “the eye test” is going to favor is flash. You can jump on your moral soap box on that point but ultimately this is a billion dollar revenue machine and some teams are just not that much fun to watch.
- Oklahoma State – A week ago, I would have put OKST in the dark horse category. But they didn’t just beat previously undefeated TCU, they dismantled them. The game was a statement. If the Cowboys end up running the table, they’ll probably look back to their victory against TCU as the turning point.
- Stanford – Pundits and analysts say it over and over again every season … in college football, “it matter when you lose.” If the boys from Stanford win out, they’ll likely benefit from this adage more than any other team in the nation. Their lone defeat came in their first game, on the road against Northwestern. The Wildcats were playing above themselves at the time and showing some defensive teeth. They remain an AP top 25 team so the loss isn’t terrible. More importantly is the improvement that Stanford has shown since then. Quality wins versus UCLA and at USC. But their season is likely to hedge on the final game on the schedule … November 28th vs. Notre Dame.
Who’s Still Pretending
- Florida – I can’t believe we’re still talking about the Gators (currently #11 in the playoff rankings) but they have a good shot to win out the rest of the schedule and go to the SEC title game. If they win there … BIG IF … what do you do with them? Well, we can only hope and pray to the football gods that situation doesn’t materialize. The Gators deserve credit as they are clearly in a rebuilding phase and shouldn’t even be sniffing the playoff. However, they’ve overachieved and been a nice story. But there’s no way this team is one of the four best in the country. They have many holes, especially on the offensive side of the football, and would be destroyed by any of the current top four. Sorry Gator fans, but hopefully the success of this year gives you something to build on for next season.
- Iowa – Let the hate mail begin. Undefeated Iowa is a bit of darling, especially in the midwest, and desperately wanting some respect. Here’s the problem — the Hawkeyes played a weak non conference schedule and the Big Ten is down this year. The have one quality win (over Northwestern) and are very much one of those “lunchbox” type teams (get it done, not too flashy, etc). In order to be a real contender, they’d need to beat both Michigan State and Ohio State by the end of the year. That can’t happen as neither are scheduled so at best, they’ll get a shot at one of them. What would that prove? If Iowa beats either team (especially OSU) doesn’t it just further validate the futility of this year’s Big Ten conference? I know they jumped WAY up this week to #5. But the Committee is just intoxicated with the story of the unlikely undefeated team from Iowa City. I expect either Iowa to lose in the conference championship or the committee to merely sober up before the final bracket is set.
- Utah – I also can’t believe we’re still talking about Utah. A nice story early in the season and still a chance to have their best year since Urban Meyer was head coach. But they are not one of the top four teams in the country. They have a big game coming up against UCLA that could help their chances but ultimately they’re likely to face Stanford in the PAC 12 championship. The Utes have looked a lot more pedestrian since USC beat the snot out of them. I don’t see them beating Stanford if a potential PAC 12 title game and thus, I don’t see Utah finishing in the top four.
The Dark Horses
- LSU – Sure it’s a double standard, but based on the reputation of the SEC, LSU still has a shot. If they run the table, which would include winning the SEC title game, then they’ve got get a look. It’d set up one of those old arguments about who beat who when and what loss hurt the most. In the end, whoever wins the SEC title is almost surely in the playoffs.
- Oklahoma – I feel for Bob Stoops. His team has been really good the last four weeks. And yet, even if they win the rest of their games and the Big 12 title, you’ll still look at that schedule and realize they lost to Texas. TEXAS! Ugh! Just like so many other teams, the next fews weeks will be decisive but in the end, the Sooners might be this year’s best example of what happens when you don’t win the ones your supposed to.
- Michigan State – My apologies to Sparty nation but I’m not believer. I haven’t been all season and the last second loss at Nebraska last week seemed inevitable to happen. If not then, then this week or the following. MSU is not good enough to go undefeated. Even before last week, three of MSU’s last four wins were close calls. In addition to their dramatic victory at Michigan, the Spartans struggled against Purdue and could only beat Rutgers by 7. So how do they get in? They have to win all the rest including victories against Penn State and Ohio State. Then they’ll have to win the Big 10 title game against likely opponent Iowa. I think even that won’t be enough … someone else is going to have to stumble but the Spartans aren’t out of it yet.
CFB fans have to keep everything in perspective. There is no perfect system but there shouldn’t be. The debate, the arguments, even the controversy is what makes CFB great. The playoff system gives us some better sense of closure to our season, but it’s never going to eliminate every issue in the minds of passionate fans everywhere. That’s what makes every game on Saturday so meaningful.