For football fans, the dog days of August mean one thing. Two-A-Days. The NFL Preview continues with the former, and the current inhabitants of Los Angeles. We’ll start with the Raiders.
The Raiders showed much improvement last season and finished a surprising 7-9 in 2015. They are hyped to be a big time contender this season in a suddenly wide open AFC West. It’s a big time offense with Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, and Amari Cooper. The Raiders are on the cusp of greatness. There’s only one problem. I don’t see it.
The defense can’t get off the field The raiders were fifth in the NFL in plays against last season, and gave up 344 first downs. The interesting stat was that they only allowed opponents to convert 37.5% of third down attempts. So the defense can be solid when necessary, but gets crushed in early downs and distances. To combat this, the Raiders drafted defensive lineman Jihad Ward, and Linebacker Shilqui Calhoun. The hope is that these run stoppers can force the opponent into more passing situations, where first round pick Karl Joseph can shine at Strong Safety. The raiders had the luxury to go all defense in the draft because their offense is so dynamic
Except it’s not really There is nothing dynamic about the Raiders offense at all. Unless average is the new dynamic. The Raiders were 17th in points, 24th in yards, 16th in passing yards, and 28th in rushing yards. Latavius Murray had 2 100 yard games, and in the other fourteen averaged 58 yards per game. Derek Carr’s numbers look nice. 33 touchdowns against only 13 interceptions. But that conveniently leaves out the 8 lost fumbles, which make things look a lot worse. Carr is still growing, and can work on things, but he holds the ball too long waiting for big plays to develop.
Will the division help them? The division and the schedule may help them a lot early on. Winnable games in the first half of the season against New Orleans, Atlanta, Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay could allow them to get off to a decent start. Denver may be a mess with their quarterback situation and San Diego could be a lame duck. The Raiders could build some confidence early on and ride it out, but this team is likely a year away at the very least.
Fantasy Focus Draft Latavius Murray, and trade him the day after he goes off. He’s good for 3 big games a year, might as well earn a return on him after one of them. Carr is a middle of the road QB, better in leagues that don’t penalize you for fumbles. Both receivers could be useful, but I like Michael Crabtree’s price better than Amari Coopers. Both will put up similar numbers but you can have Crabtree three rounds later (or 15 dollars cheaper).
Prediction I don’t see the 10 wins and a Wild Card that I’ve seen elsewhere. Everything has to fall right for them, and they have to make significant leaps from last season. I think even if that happens, the best they finish is 8-8.