April 21, 2017 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Knockout Girl | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sugar Cube | 1.20 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seems a Fortune | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kate N Abs Reward | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Yearning | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Issued | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Handy Candy | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Track | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thomas Point | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Sail Ahoy | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Howell Mountain | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | War Daddy | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Latent Revenge | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | The Great War | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Made Bail | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Shadow Rock | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Undrafted | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Tell All You Know | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Gorgeous Bird | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Marquee Cal Gal | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Choctaw Chuck | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Front Pocket Money | 5.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Expected Ruler | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Never Hungover | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unchained Melody | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Boudicea’s Revenge | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our Majesty | 1.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Problems | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Runway Doll | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | White Gold | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Straightaway May | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stormin Maclean | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tarpys Zip | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Tempestuous Angel | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Presidential Bird | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hickory Island | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kings Wish | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unstabled | 4.50 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prevailing Bets | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Colonel’s Ina Rush | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Knight’s Dream (IRE) | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Now in a Drive | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gostisbehere | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Diamondmaze | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Findley Isle | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sakonnet | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indys Lil Bro | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Super Buddy | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sentry | 3.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Royal Ruse | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Spatetacular Joe | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Workingforaliving | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Blue Azul | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gladtobehere | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sparty Boy | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Coors Lute | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Phat Man | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Equator | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Wicked Zar | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gorse | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Her Love for Pappy | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Outsider Art | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Lamontagne | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Surfina | 50.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Most Beautiful (GB) | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghost Dazzler | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Doxology | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Recognition | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Hone In | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Why Not Be Queen | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Miss Gossip (IRE) | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Justa Lady | 6.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Northern Michigan | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Hilliard Lyons Doubledogdare S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Dear Elaine | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Fog Horn | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Power of Snunner | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Unbridled Mo | 0.80 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twirl Girl | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | On John | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kaliningrad | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Dalarna | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Makeamericagreat | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Refractive | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kitten’s Solution | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kitten’s Karma | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fifth Thief | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Intent to Strike | 4.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Douglas Road | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Our Gordie | 8.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Major Eclipse | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.