May 6, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | No Fault | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | What a Star | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Maximus Beauty | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gulf View | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ring Me Up | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Saved by the Swell | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wholehearted | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Waltzwithmecurlin | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seventh Tee | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Salute With Honor | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Underpressure | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Horse Fly | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Saturday | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | No Mo Dough | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Donwell | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hembree | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ingadore | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Mo Tom | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rocket Time | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flashy Jewel | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Idolo Porteno (ARG) | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wabel | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Far Right | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Donegal Moon | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Carve | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Souper Fly Over | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sevier | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Perfect Partner | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Archival | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oklahoma View | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Caviar Czar (IRE) | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sir Ballantine | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Encrypt | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zaevion | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Harlan Strong (ARG) | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | War Envoy | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Zapperini | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Hockey School | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cherry Wine | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ghurair | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Blarp | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Dudley Digges | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Crescent Drive | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forge (GB) | 3.50 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | War Stroll | 8.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Element | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Adventist | 8.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | J S Bach | 15.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sky Flight | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Another Lemon Drop | 10.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Irish You Well | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Long Ago | 15.00 | 15.3 | 29-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Humana Distaff S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mines and Magic | 15.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Finest City | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Humor | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lightstream | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Carina Mia | 2.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sweetgrass | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Paulassilverlining | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S. Presented By Longines
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Hillhouse High | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Linda | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mississippi Delta | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Believe in Bertie | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Harmonize | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Roca Rojo (IRE) | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Temple City | 1.80 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Prize Exhibit (GB) | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Lg&e And Ku
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bitumen | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uncontested | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Excitations | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Dozing | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wild Shot | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sonic Mule | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Colonelsdarktemper | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bobby On Fleek | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Warrior’s Club | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Local Hero | 5.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | You’re to Blame | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rapid Dial | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greeley and Ben | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – American Turf S. Presented By Ram Trucks
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Conquest Farenheit | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Arklow | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | La Coronel | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Made You Look | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oscar Performance | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ritzy A. P. | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Parlor | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Score | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitten’s Cat | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Good Samaritan | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holiday Stone | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Twinspires.com
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Slew | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Masochistic | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bluegrass Singer | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Clearly Now | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Denman’s Call | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Limousine Liberal | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | El Kabeir | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Solid Wager | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Schivarelli | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Forevamo | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | The Truth Or Else | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Chief of Staff | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tom’s Ready | 15.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Apprehender | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Woodford Reserve Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bal a Bali (BRZ) | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Conquest Panthera | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Flatlined | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divisidero | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kaigun | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | World Approval | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Enterprising | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kasaqui (ARG) | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Beach Patrol | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Can’thelpbelieving (IRE) | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oscar Nominated | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ballagh Rocks | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Stakes) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum! Brands
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Always Dreaming | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Girvin | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | State of Honor | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sonneteer | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Battle of Midway | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Irish War Cry | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 19 | 19 | Practical Joke | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | McCraken | 5.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fast and Accurate | 50.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thunder Snow (IRE) | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 20 | 20 | Patch | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Classic Empire | 4.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Gunnevera | 15.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 21 | 21 | Royal Mo | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Hence | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Gormley | 15.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Tapwrit | 20.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Irap | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | J Boys Echo | 20.00 | 17.3 | 33-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lookin At Lee | 20.00 | 17.3 | 33-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Untrapped | 30.00 | 18.3 | 34-1 | |
| 22 | 22 | Master Plan | 50.00 | 20.8 | 39-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Casses Story | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hunka Burning Love | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Visionary Tale | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Star Empire (GB) | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rockin Rudy | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Dilettante | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bookman | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | One of a Kind | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Arch Revenge | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Hard Scramble | 5.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Chargin Storm | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Souper Wish | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Wicked Macho | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Morocco | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arch Cat | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon Country | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Ntestinalfortitude | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Unk | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 11 | Likeitlikethat | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stone Mountain | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 8 | Dapper Sam | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dig Charlie Dig | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Daringly Bold | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fireball Shot | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mono | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.