May 29, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Shivoo | 1.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Divorce | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Peeps | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | No Show Rose | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Shulamite Lady | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Kieran Street | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Miss Helen | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Distortress | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Honor Ride | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Angelo’s Ashes | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Right On By | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chasing the Buck | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Handiwork | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Ironclad | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bad Student | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flash Trading | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish You Well | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shamelessfi | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | The Music in You | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Directioner | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stormfield | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cyclone Betty | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Insidious | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Archarityrobbyn | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hungry Again | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sister Blues | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wolf Gourmet | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Galilea | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Corby | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | What’s In A Kiss (IRE) | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Drinks On Broadway | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Prediction | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Ultra Arumba (BRZ) | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Yooou Den | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Little Ariel | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Disones Pretty | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gracequinnannamady | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elona | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Cherokee Callie | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ticket to Riches | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | High Multiple | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Blue Azul | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Young American | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Whole Lotta Luck | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Stone | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bud’s Mr. B | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Foolish Beau | 50.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dublinyourmoney | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trinitas Soldier | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 3 | Wicked Zar | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 14 | Souper Wish | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 2 | Souper Fly Over | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Portal | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Huntin Buddy | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Unk | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Union Salute | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Teletap | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Royal Ghost | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Trovatore | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rompicapo (BRZ) | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Encrypt | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Headliner | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Unauthorized Use | 20.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Street Limit | 20.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sonic Boom | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shadow Tracer | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Thirstforlife | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Carson Kan | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Royal by Nature (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Capture the Glory | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Equator | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Casses Story | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 3 | Our Stormin Norman | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bam Bam Bryan | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dilettante | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Colonelsdarktemper | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Transatlantic Kiss | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Saturday | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One of a Kind | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Strollinontheriver | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Doc Kane | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Flash Attack | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Oso Ready | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Dame Fortune | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reward’s Girl | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hello Linda | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Ilvermorny | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Sigh | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Indy’s Finesse | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Forty Christina | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Imallaboutthatbass | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kitty Express | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Santinzo | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.