June 3, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | More Than Shirl | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bipartisan | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Phenomenal Phoenix | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sky Alert | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Star Dog | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ellio | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Costa Mesa | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stratocruiser | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Jenna J | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Naughty Little Nun | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sister Kan | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1A | 8 | Blaze Star | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Mia Bella Rossa | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stay Spicy | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Buy Low Sell High | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maximum Edge | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Hunka Burning Love | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Conquest Wildcat | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chief Know It All | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Warrior’s Club | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rapid Dial | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jeeves | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Doggerwinii | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Carolina Jasmine | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Northern Connect | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Cobblestone | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tia Flor | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Cruizer | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Starlight Express | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Showreel (GB) | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Thirster | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cantcatchchanneled | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Front Row Debbie | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nautia | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiff | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Giovanna Ponti | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Thunderon the Nile | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Gig Gee | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lost Prado | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Scotch Is My Candy | 6.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ide Better Move | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Will Wants Candy | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Be a Factor | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bosses Money | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Harambe | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Neak Up On Ya | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Freedom Works | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Its a Journey | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Be Playful | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Havana Dream | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Curlish Figure | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | B Rockett | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Burma Road | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Princess | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Tipat | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Taxable | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Inveniam Viam | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Arodg | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Primal | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Caniform | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Perplexed | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | How’s My Bud | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Fu | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dreammeister | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prevailing Bets | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kentucky Shine | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Mighty Beau Overnight S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Latent Revenge | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mayor Mac | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Partly Mocha | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rivers Run Deep | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vici | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A Fashion Affair | 50.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Forgive | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Platinum Prince | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grand Candy | 5.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Expected Ruler | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Aristides S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Limousine Liberal | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Recount | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Abbaa | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wabel | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | The Truth Or Else | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Schivarelli | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Union Jackson | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wilbo | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Bemus Point | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Clever Serve | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Promise of Spring | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Malibu Bonnie | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Vicki | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Student Body | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rocket Girl | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lifefullofreinbows | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Stellaire | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I’m the Reason | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.