June 18, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Dorodansa | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | A Little Attitude | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scatnap | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Julerette | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shea’s Cool | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 5 | Avisionofchocolate | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 7 | Tiger Eyes | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Olathe | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Upstage | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rehearsed | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moonlit Garden | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 8 | Bourgeois | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 2 | Wholehearted | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Lil Miss Blue Eyes | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Special Ops | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blarp | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Go Navy Go | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | High Noon Rider | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ghurair | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Paden | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Dujac | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Above the Bar | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Linsanity | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ice Cream Truck | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Almost English | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ship Disturber | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bipartisan | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Curzon Street | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiree | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fleet Gold Digger | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Highroller Dave | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mr. Unanonymous | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Dr. Calahan | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arsenalofdemocracy | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Roberto Gato | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Goods Gone West | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Grosco (MEX) | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Green Gold | 2.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Full Clip | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pinetree Pro | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Brightly | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiz My Lady | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Red Dane (ITY) | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | My Bright Idea | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Our Maria Celeste | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Into Summer | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Meister Legend | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Sunset | 20.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Malibu Stella | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Get Foxy | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Diamonds for Leah | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Salute the Warrior | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Myositis Mystique | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pemba | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Mizz Tutu | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | My Sugar | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Haute Prospect | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Soul Strategy | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Quiet Score | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Budget Cut | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 8 | My Eminence | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Arch Cat | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pocket Square | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Union Salute | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Your Way | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Malibu At Midnight | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tarpon Bay Road | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Red Dude | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Insurgent | 4.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Pitch Count | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Distorted Ransom | 50.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Quenlenny | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Giada Vegas | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wolf Gourmet | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Ervsayslethergo | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Showreel (GB) | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | American Cowgirl | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Lick | 2.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Brooks House | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bonnie Arch | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cinder | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Res Ipsa | 4.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Corby | 6.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | A Dixie Twister | 6.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ellens Birthday | 15.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bootsy’s Girl | 50.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Prado’s Smokin | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cedarville | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Haynesome | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Safe Passage | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Oklahoma View | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Scalpel Please | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fat Daddy | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Proud to Live Free | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | K L S Forty Three | 10.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Guilty Streak | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Where’s Lew | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Awesome Mil | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.