July 21, 2017 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Fire Starter | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Marriage Fever | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flash Trading | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | River Date | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Core Portfolio | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Praetereo | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rich Daddy | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Indycott | 1.60 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Beaux Arts | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wanda Fay | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Trouble for Skylar | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Wavy Baby | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lady of Miracles | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Big Expense | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Scatback | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Centr of the Stage | 4.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Frosty Wolf | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Misty Forest | 6.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Willie U | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Offlee Brawn | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Ballantine | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Planet Trailblazer (BRZ) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Carlino | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Point Hope | 2.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surtap | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Via Egnatia | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hollow Point | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Patternrecognition | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Takaful | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Space Shuttle | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Asset | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | So Noted | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Scramble | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Reason to Soar | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Crimson Creed | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Everybody Loves Me | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Honey Glow | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Quick Quick Quick | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | More Mojo | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Southampton Way | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sunny’s Funny | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Amazing Belle | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Country Affair | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sororitysweetheart | 6.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Purrfect Miss | 20.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kickin Kimberly | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Buffalo Miss | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Andromeda’s Risk | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Itsinthestars | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Discreet Image | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ribbonite | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Swayed | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ingrid | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Wantagh Queen | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Same Kinda Crazy | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Right of Approval | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Promise | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Arietta | 30.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiffanys Freud | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Red Rifle | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Highland Sky | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Muqtaser | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kaigun | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Messi (GER) | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Shield | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Infinite Wisdom | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Black Sea (FR) | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mark My Style | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Behesht (FR) | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 1A | 12 | Splashtastic | 4.50 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Backsideofthemoon | 12.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Schuylerville S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dream It Is | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Snowfire | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mel’s Gone Wild | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Limited View | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Best Performance | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Stainless | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pacific Gale | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Buy Sell Hold | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Laudation | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lake George S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Dream Dancing | 4.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Corporate Queen | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Fifty Five | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Defiant Honor | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Victory to Victory | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Proctor’s Ledge | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sweeping Paddy | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chubby Star | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Party Boat | 6.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Super Marina | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Veil | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dynamic War | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Connie Girl | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Mizzencat | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Submit | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Grand Banks | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Rain in Spain | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sunday Gravy | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pinchpenny | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | French Dressing | 8.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Joyful Joyful | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mama’s Red Hat | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.