September 15, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Seeking Bull | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Myositis Mystique | 1.40 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Salute the Warrior | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bill’s Wealthygirl | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Allie Grace | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tickety Boo | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Aquarius | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | His Royal Majesty | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Diamond Delight | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Summer O Fiftyfour | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hardly Seen Slim | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu At Midnight | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ty Man | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Disciplinaryaction | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dirty Day | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Woodmans Luck | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Albano | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cutacorner | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesome Thought | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Tapidor | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Eden Ridge | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jack Tripp | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Bye Crazy Eyes | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | United Patriot | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Limit | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shakedown | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Verbelizer | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Analyzing | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gambler’s Choice | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | B Dubya | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Peas and Carrots | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Greeley Can Win | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Brouillard | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Titfortat | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Leanne N Susan | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Three D Printer | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ultra Arumba (BRZ) | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love My Life | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Jolla d’Oro | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dingiada | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Capriasca | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pocketfullofgreen | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cash Dance | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Dancing | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Silla Manila | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 9 | Party Club | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cheponera | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 10 | Enrage | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Queenardini | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 11 | Holy Fort | 8.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Stronger Than Ever | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Vindicta | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Sweet Oats | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Grats Road | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bode On Tap | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Macho Orb | 10.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dance Rhythms | 15.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Exotic Beauty | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Aircraft Carrier | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moonlit Garden | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Looks Super | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Twisted Adage | 0.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Front Row Debbie | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 3 | Our Maria Celeste | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lovin Empire (JPN) | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 4A | 4 | Anothertequilashot | 0.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 6 | Spice Drop | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tootsie Pie | 0.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Storm Cry | 8.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Shirocca (IRE) | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dorodansa | 12.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stonetacular | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Its a Journey | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Improv | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rhodium | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Taxable | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Toasted | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lake Turkana | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Soul | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Secret House | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Running Back | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Strong Yen | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | K Wave | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Behavioral Bias | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Attribute | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rocking the Boat | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ender | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Pitch Count | 50.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chargin Storm | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mistake Present | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Spezia | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Silent Decree | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pontifical | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | It Is Dejavu | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Crawford | 3.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Flatter the Queen | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Nicky Numbers | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hold the Door | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Colonel Dan | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shakurr | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | K J’s Nobility | 5.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Santa Monica Beach | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mikeandchickdidit | 50.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.