September 23, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Doggerwinii | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss Cobblestone | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jo Jo’s Wine | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mizz Tutu | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twirl Girl | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big Red Seven | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Awesome Music | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Funny | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twinsanity | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fort Fortitude | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tiz too Much | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gasaway | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Athletic Temper | 1.60 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Big E | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Something Bird | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Crazy Ivan | 12.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Trooper | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dubby Dubbie | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Spinning Serve | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fighting for Grace | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pegasus Moon | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Orbit Earth | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dalaman | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boxing Glove | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | America’s Tale | 5.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Emmport | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Saucy Dame | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | La Dame Blanche | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Track Rose | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Mo Mentum | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sahara Breeze | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Queenardini | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Skipped | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Don’t Tell Marge | 15.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | McKinli’sbabyblues | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gentle Ruler | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Deadline | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 6 | Tropical Wave | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Saintly Cry | 15.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Heaven Bound | 20.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Scatmeifucan | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Heavenly Daze | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Natchez Pass | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Radiantrithym | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ada Lovelace | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bill’s Wealthygirl | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Like a Haint | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Racey Reecey | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Twin Farms | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Quip | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ride a Comet | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Enjoy the Journey | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Crosswalk | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1A | 15 | Bandito | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 4 | Kentucky Club | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Eternal Force | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Seauxtale | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 2 | Presidio | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Dry Martini | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Payne | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Best of Greeley | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sourdough | 12.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Boots | 15.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Hay Listen Up | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beltway | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Young American | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tito Tonight | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Unbridled Eagle | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Up Your Cash | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silver G T O | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Brave John | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Rock Shandy | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grand Marais | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Zip Van Winkle | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Attraction | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Higher Factor | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bingo Kitten | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Dublinyourmoney | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Get a Valentine | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Mongol G | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Creative Courage | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Meraki | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Gorse | 5.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Road Check | 30.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Unauthorized Use | 20.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Costa Mesa | 50.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Thundercloud | 50.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Dogwood S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 7 | My Sweet Stella | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Too Much Tip | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Tequilita | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Pinch Hit | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Nineteenth Street | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | Farrell | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | No More Babies | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Cara Blythe | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 8 | Jordan’s Henny | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Perfect Wife | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Minnie Blip | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Student Body | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Covenant | 4.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Champagne Problems | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – President Of The United Arab Emirates Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | PADDYS DAY | 1.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | QUICK AND RICH | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | KAO MALOAN SWA | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | SAND VICTOR | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | RISKY RED | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | EASTER MAN | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | THESS IS AWESOME | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | RAINEING SAND | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | LIL DUDE AA | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Bear’s Big Boy | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Twirling Cinnamon | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Poseidon’s Way | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Shine | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiznow R J | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Solitary Ranger | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Roberto Gato | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Richie the Bull | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Frost Or Frippery | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Betting McCann Can | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bobby V. | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.