November 2, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cash Bonus | 2.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Circle Unbroken | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Let’s Meet in Rio | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hey Bro | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Draxhall Woods | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Shooters Alley | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Aurora’s Kid | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Safari Heart | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Schliffy | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Limit | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | I’m Worth It | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dr Spaulding | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Miss You Jo | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1A | 7 | Aint There No More | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cofveve | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Alfredo | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hello World | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Samurai Mike | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Kid Sadove | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Elwood’s Advice | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ostentation | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Private Party | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Perfect Movement | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Two Stepping Groom | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sabbatarian | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Sheltowee’s Point | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pemba | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Frigidish | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mizzencat | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Native | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | In Focus | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Budget Cut | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vienna Rose | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Ashy Taty | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Urawesomeblossom | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Pennyann’s Inn | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Flatout Happy | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bunny Boss | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 7 | Laila’s Jewel | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lawless | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Queen Maxine | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kieran Street | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 10 | My Eminence | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 8 | Dreamrider | 1.40 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 9 | Tapsolute | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 7 | Neon Gator | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 3 | Jon Knowsthecode | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Going Rate | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2B | 11 | Fireball Shot | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Big Bad Zin | 3.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Intentions | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hear Bout It Later | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1A | 6 | Beyond the Nile | 3.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Moolamiss | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rossini Sunrise | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Darion’s Dream | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Roan Feathers | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eye On Harper | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Proud Dixie | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bernadreamy | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | North Princess | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Heza Kitten | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 11 | Mr. Discretionary | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Non Regrette | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Sanimo | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | War Tom | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Silver Giant | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stormcoast | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Good Offense | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | El Blanco | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Finished | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ammunition | 15.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tomahawk Kitten | 8.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Accent of Gold | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Curlins Vow | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Singing Bullet | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vaporman | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lieutenant Seany O | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rich Daddy | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call the Colonel | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Tiger Lisa | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hoptown Honey | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz de Lovely | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Binary Bourbon | 1.60 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | She’s Flat Out | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Rock On Sandy | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Port of Indy | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Betty’s Irish Jig | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glory Train | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bonnie Bonnet | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.