November 3, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Carson Kan | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | The Money Monster | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hurricane Force | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Roskilde | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reckling | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hugh B. | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Evader | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Charlesbrecknridge | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Go Vo | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 4 | Solve | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Epic Journey | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Awesome Thought | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Strut the Ring | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Run You Down | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dubby Dubbie | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Five Man Wolf | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Call Me | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Papa Caliente | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Wolverine | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bo Tee | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Burton | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Artesia Wells | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sergeant McNerney | 10.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Decision Time | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Slate | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stack Em High | 30.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Memphisinmay | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Commander Lute | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dujac | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aesop | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Nite of the Hunter | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mojo Street | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Qeyaas | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glitnir | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dowlingfourtyeight | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Claymaker | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spinning for Home | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Explosive Vacation | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Desert Poem | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hello Linda | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Run Juja Run | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Parking Ticket | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Nifty | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kells | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lipstickonmycollar | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Klassie Connect | 3.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Whiskey Chick | 15.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sweet Char | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rosecoloredglasses | 15.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Handy Candy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Rollin Smoke | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Dr Givens | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Deep Explorer | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 16 | 16 | Alsinaafy (IRE) | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Star Cross | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Arch Revenge | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Elite Justice | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Higher Factor | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 6 | Up Your Cash | 5.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | P J’s Awesome | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jax Heritage | 5.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 3 | Ceeky | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Costa Mesa | 20.00 | 13.8 | 26-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alpha Bravo | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Thundercloud | 30.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Vision of Justice | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz a Treasure | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mrs Rocco | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Her Kitty | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Peeps | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 2A | 2 | Amberspatriot | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honor With Pride | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Waki Patriot | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Riesling | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Georgia’s Reward | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ghosted | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Triple Kapalua | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ruthless Child | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Salt Bae | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Gianna’s Gift | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Biloxi Princess | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Miz K | 4.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Royal Road | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tapit At Ann | 50.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Luvin Bullies | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Red Lodge | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Sentence | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | D’boldest | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tia Flor | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | MacCorleot | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Melaleuca | 3.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Gilded Lily | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dulce de Leche | 50.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Starlight Express | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lucy B | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | La Jolla d’Oro | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Big Island Blonde | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Our Adieu | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Teacup Twirl | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Titfortat | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Leanne N Susan | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Alittlecomplicated | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wildwood Kantharos | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Brilliant Belle | 6.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Prom Theme | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Rockaroo | 12.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Kate N Abs Reward | 10.00 | 13 | 25-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Muddle | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Lucky Me Lucky You | 12.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Honey C | 50.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.