November 5, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Stetson Gold | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dixie Kicks | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Sweet Reward | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Greely’s Comet | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fancy Pinstripes | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Indian Trick | 3.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Soul Strategy | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Endless Thyme | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dancing Dove | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Distinctly Mine | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Daddy’s Memory | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Choctaw | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Like a Haint | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mango’s Muse | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rockaroo | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Oater | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sevenheartswarrior | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | On John | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Thegreatgeneration | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vilonia Strong | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Silver Cowboy | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | You Go Boy | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Laughing Levi | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Army Grey | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Giovante | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Tiz That | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Prideofsevenhearts | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Teenertown Prince | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stylish Gem | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Big John Striker | 20.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Got the Notion | 30.00 | 15.8 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Latent Revenge | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Spellker | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 4 | Singingintheheat | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mayor Mac | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 5A | 5 | Undrafted | 1.80 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Balandeen | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gorgeous Bird | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Platinum Prince | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | While Ye May | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Diamond Tap | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Song of Spring | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bemus Point | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Laney | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Legallini | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | C Islandsurprise | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiz My Lady | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Ever Special | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Katie’s Champ | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rehearsal Dinner | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cuddle Kitten | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unfading Beauty | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Right On By | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Ridge Girl | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jeremiah Jewel | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Storm Cry | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Honor’s Parade | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | My Eminence | 3.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Surf Shack | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Souper Catch | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Belgrano | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dig Charlie Dig | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Derecho | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moneymeister | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kits Gold | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gasaway | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Control Stake | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Long Station | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Never Give In | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Running Back | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fish Trappe Road | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Infinite Mischief | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Manhattan Mischief | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ship Disturber | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Stormy Pacific | 5.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mom’s On Strike | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heavenly Kingdom | 12.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Honor Ride | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Defrock | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | No Fault | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wolf Gourmet | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tamit (IRE) | 4.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Soulshine | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Billboard | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 13A | 12 | English Affair | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Araminta | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talmadge Tap | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Queen Anne’s Lace | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Little Mizzy | 12.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Full Heart | 1.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Oppidum | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Stan’s Old Habits | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Xanto | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oriental Crown | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ransom’s Love | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go Beeja | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | The Last Prophet | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Utmost Intensity | 15.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Northern Ranger | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bodler | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Emmett’s Dream | 12.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Big Bob Kennedy | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.