November 8, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Demands Attention | 2.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Joey B | 1.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Correctamundo | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Catcruzin | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ideal City | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Benny Colors | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Psycho Cat | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Firelight | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Heavenly Daze | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Radiantrithym | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Grantastica | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Starship Aquarius | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gotta Keep Movin | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 6 | Miss Frank E | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Native Indy | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Snow Leopard | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Black Bear | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Enchantera | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Purely Given | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sonoma Crush | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sharp Art | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ceejay’s Mister | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Masked Talent | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bella Be Proud | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Disones Pretty | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Am Miss Brown | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Baylynn | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Martha Rose | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lady Molly | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Baltic Star | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | See the Bird | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | On John | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ty Man | 4.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Hay Net | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | Bunzlauer | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Royal Ghost | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | You Go Boy | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Star On My Shoes | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Captivated | 6.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Giovante | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Torba | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hansen Gone West | 4.50 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Real Discreet | 6.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Prideofsevenhearts | 30.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Red Eye Vision | 12.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Forever Sure | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 15 | Big Kick | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Futile | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 6 | Pilot House | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Tickle | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Woodmans Luck | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Maestro | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Blame Angel | 10.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 12 | Consultation | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 3 | Vedelago (IRE) | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | U. S. A. Cowboy | 8.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Eden Ridge | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mystic Tiger | 6.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 4 | Back Togetheragain | 30.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Day in the Sun | 15.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Arrival | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | He’s Bankable | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Smoke Monster | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Eclipsed Moon | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Vic the Boss | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sir Sahib | 6.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Kilroy Was Here | 4.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Plainsman | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 1 | 1 | Syndicate Saver | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Meistermind | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rickhouse | 20.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Applewood | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Middle of Nowhere | 20.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Rise Up | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Tom | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Money Flows | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Encryption | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Far Right | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yolo Mon | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dontmesswithjoanne | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Loom | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Polar Vortex | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Clever Girl | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 4 | Curl the Pearl | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Eqho | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Majestic Angel | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Yahtzee Queen | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Felt in Pocket | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | La Manta Gris | 3.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | Scr |
| 4 | 2 | Holiday’s Angel | 8.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lilly’s Dream | 3.50 | 10 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 15 | 6 | Defy | 3.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Savannah Belle | 5.00 | 12.5 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 5 | Conquest Bandido | 15.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Big Exchange | 4.00 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Archangel Rose | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Silver G T O | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Terrifying | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Primed for Talent | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Pontastic | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bowman West | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Plumes | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 3 | Aviator Parks | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Unauthorized Use | 10.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giant Red | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 | Scr |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.