November 12, 2017 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Parol | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Electric | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bail | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | In It for the Gold | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ducru | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Spanker | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tapin Through Life | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Samara | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pico Chick | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Familyofroses | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Little Miss Julia | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Da Wildcat Girl | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Bounty | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Mara | 1.80 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Work of Art | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dig That Mine | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bad Guy | 10.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | San Juan Diego | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flash Drive | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | D’rock | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Behavior | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Claude’salleycat | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Closing Statement | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Kasbach | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reality Queen | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 5 | Sweet Offer | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Cyrielle | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Mojgan | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Filfila | 3.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Lemoona | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 9 | Areyoucominghere | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Fingerpaint | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Burak | 15.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ballston | 5.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Rock Doc | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Prankster | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Terry O Geri | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Boy Tate | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Guick | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Altesino | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Italian Syndicate | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Benevolence | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Side Tracks | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Formal Start | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Doyouknowsomething | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Candid Desire | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kurilov (CHI) | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vulcan’s Forge | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Great Stuff | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Backsideofthemoon | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Hope’s Roar | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 6 | Sweet August Lady | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz a Kitten | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queen of Castle | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pinchbeck | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Photographer | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Five Each Way | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Baronet | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | Kitty Maddnes | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Way Smart | 5.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Holy Gold | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Hardly Mate | 12.00 | 11.9 | 22-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Head Shrinker | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Hollywood Cat | 15.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 9 | Amber Dancer | 20.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Over My Head | 30.00 | 15.6 | 29-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – New York Stallion Series S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Behrnik’s Bank | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Riot Worthy | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Passporttovictory | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Bee Noteworthy | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wonderment | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Frosty Margarita | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Silver Dagger | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ray’s The Bar (GB) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Patentar (FR) | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | J S Bach | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 12 | 10 | Mambo At the Gym | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lewis Vale | 4.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bow Tie Affair | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | How’s Your Sugar | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aire Bueno (CHI) | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Damage Control | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Caribbean | 5.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Dogtown | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 11 | Hello Abraxon | 20.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Motown Sound | 30.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 14 | 14 | Inventor’s Gate | 50.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 8 | Romans Paradise | 50.00 | 15.1 | 29-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.