November 12, 2017 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ohmymic | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brouillard | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bullet Bandit | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Play | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hung Over On Gin | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mommy’s Soldier | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Burnt Bluff | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Oakmont | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Abraham | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Royal Squeeze | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Icatiro | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ain’t Misbehavin | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Brerry | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Handiwork | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Operation Stevie | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Conquest Panthera | 1.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Royal Son | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bondurant | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Applicator | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tapitation | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sir Dudley Digges | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ursula Andress (BRZ) | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Voodoothatyoudo | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Play the Break | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Cash Tiz Wonderful | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Julie Darlin | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ritzy Lass | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Grace At Midnight | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eye On the Money | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ticket to Riches | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz All Biz | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Lady Warrior | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mizz Fabulous | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Girl Janelle | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dance Rhythms | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ravish | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Charcuterie | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silver Turns Gold | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Gigi Jean | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sacred Storm | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Soco Unbridled | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Glispee | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Storm Runner | 3.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Forgotten Coast | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shared Value | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 5 | 5 | Honey Dont | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bow Ready | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Neverquitdreaming | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | Scr |
| 11 | 9 | Jacktastic | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Navy Armed Guard | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | Scr |
| 13 | 13 | Callmecash | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | Scr |
| 7 | 7 | Dixieland Rags | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Super Factor | 12.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Single Gem | 8.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 2 | King of Candy | 20.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beckham’s Joy | 12.00 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Violent Strike | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | Scr |
| 10 | 10 | The Robert | 12.00 | 14.6 | 28-1 | Scr |
| 8 | 8 | Osceola Point | 30.00 | 16.1 | 31-1 | Scr |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Funny Holiday | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Star Quest | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Angelo’s Ashes | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Zipperini | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Never Hungover | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Chicory | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chevy to the Levy | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mandarina | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Snoose Sasa | 10.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Uncle Pancho | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Pressing Luck | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Athletic Temper | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Wild Will | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz too Much | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Unstabled | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Elsie Time | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | King’s Reckoning | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Worthy | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Gagaoveryou | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 | Scr |
| 3 | 3 | Missseventhirteen | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | Scr |
| 2 | 1 | Pastime | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Catwood | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | Scr |
| 6 | 4 | Mongolian Shopper | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Thirteen Songs | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | English Dancer | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stormin Babe | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | Scr |
| 9 | 5 | Five Moons | 30.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | Scr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Colonel Swinson | 5.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | K L S Forty Three | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cool Ambition | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Guilty Streak | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rompicapo (BRZ) | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Baku Dancer | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | American Ride | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Buzzkillington | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Cross | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fairway Lane | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Awesome Mil | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.