January 12, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Vilma | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Hembree | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | California Swing | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Brianbakescookies | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Going Strong | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cocktail Countess | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Solitary Gem | 1.40 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gia Michael | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Netti’s Legacy | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lillard Hall | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Morning Traveler | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Beyondelle | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Girlie’s Dream | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Connie A | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cotton Candy Cutie | 1.20 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Graceful Gal | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baronet | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unbridledadventure | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beyond Discreet | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | War Eagle’s Return | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Afleet Martini | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bluegrass Singer | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strueves Star | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Hiding Place | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Power Nap | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roman Revival | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Global Positioning | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bluegrass Prevails | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Pegasus Red | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Brimstone | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fratello Del Nord | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sol the Freud | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bigshotinthenews | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Alva T Soup | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3A | 3 | Impazible Creek | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Impazible Woman | 1.20 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goldtown | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9B | 9 | Catchmewithasmile | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Carlisle Belle | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10B | 10 | Lookin Kinda Crazy | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Desert Affair | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tiffany’s Vision | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You Promise | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Acquainted | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Diamond Jen Brady | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | My Roxy Girl | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Salty Smile | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Blushing Justine | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Gypsy Janie | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Fever | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Delightful | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Paranoia | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – La Verdad S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Holiday Disguise | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Quezon | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Absatootly | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Palladian Bridge | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bee Noteworthy | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | She’s All Ready | 30.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wonderment | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Orchid Party | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Forever Daisy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9A | 9 | Lady Vicki | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Scorpion Bowl | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Queen Apollo | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Puffery | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | My Victoria Rose | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Breezy Gal | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Sunshine Gal | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Velvet Trinni | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starlite Mission | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Iridescent Morn | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Lightnin Strike | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Sundance Joy | 50.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.