January 13, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Praetereo | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Conquest Bigluck E | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nominal Dollars | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ro Bear | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Try Flying | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Motown Sound | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cotton Town | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Thirsty Donnerstag | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lem Me Tel Ya | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Flipped | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Connolly’s Beads | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Threefortyfive | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | It’s Hot Out | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | Belleville Spring | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Cain Is Abel | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Playboy Johnny | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | T R Crew | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pioneer Spirit | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flash Trading | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bolita Boyz | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Very Very Stella | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Catapult Jack | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Toast to Ghost | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Tammany Giant | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Barefoot Angel | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Salty Slew | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Heat Check | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | St. Patrick Frost | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Pimm’s Cup | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ed’s Quick Cat | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lobbyist | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Stakes) – Say Florida Sandy S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Celtic Chaos | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ostrolenka | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gold for the King | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Boy Tate | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Eye Luv Lulu | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Candid Desire | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pat On the Back | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Haul Anchor | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Daddy’s Home | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Bartleby | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Polar City | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Light the Vow | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Son of Mine | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Best Surprise | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | City Traveler | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Shimmering Moon | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bluegrass Jamboree | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Harkness | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nisha | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bow Town Cat | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ladies Day | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | China Rider | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Colorful Charades | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Jerome S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Old Time Revival | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Smooth B | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Firenze Fire | 0.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Trumpets | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Coltandmississippi | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Factor This | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Regalian | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Glennwood | 50.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Ucantcatchmybreath | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Pequeno Grande | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Purring On Empty | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Paganini | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Nolinski | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Now a Factor | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hokulea | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Iron Johnny | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Can’tweallgetalong | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Banker’s Island | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Binkster | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Freudian Analyst | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | I’m Not Funny | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Simma Cum Laude | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Mr. Skittles | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Samaretto | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.