February 3, 2018 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Arbitrator | 1.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | War Eagle’s Return | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | American Road | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Strueves Star | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Going Strong | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Heart | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Surprise Wonder | 1.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wushu Warrior | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Theresa’s Boy | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Leading Storm | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Wicked Huntsman | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Last Chant | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Short Kakes | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tasteful | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Picture Day | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Angel Food | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Decorator Jenn | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | China Rider | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Asphalt Paving | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Northern | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Shoe Loves Shoe | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Town | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Berger | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Truly a Moon Shot | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Three to Thirteen | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hopper Dropper | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Lady Vicki | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Under Suspicion | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Starlite Mission | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Moyne | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Forever Daisy | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Out of Orbit | 1.60 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cartwheel | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bourbon High | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Independent Worker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Driven West | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wondermeister | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Micozzi | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Polar City | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Full of Mine | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Perfect Gem | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Skeet Shot | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Heat Check | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jewel Can Disco | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Foreset | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sudden Surprise | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Final Chapter | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mighty Zealous | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bavaro | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | We Did | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cerretalto | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Withers S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | California Night | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Avery Island | 1.60 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Firenze Fire | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bal Harbour | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Marconi | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coltandmississippi | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Catapult Jack | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Daring Destiny | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tammany Giant | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Musicality | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Barefoot Angel | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Auk | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Toast to Ghost | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pimm’s Cup | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Time Expired | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lobbyist | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.