August 19, 2018 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Saida | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Glory to Kitten | 1.80 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Long | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Miss Nancy | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | Queen of Castle | 1.80 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Aja Brown | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Free N Clear | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sugar Mags | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver Magnolia | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Leinster | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pennyforyrthoughts | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Asdaaf | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Timber Ghost | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Knight Disruptor | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Duncastle | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Candirita | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Raphael | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Spirit Queen (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Alternative Energy | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Her Latest Film | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Cover Model | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Rarities | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tap Tap Taparoo | 10.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | That’s Speightful | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Special Thing | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Say It Softly | 15.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Stylishly | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Overheated | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Summer Colony S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Moonlit Garden | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Awestruck | 1.40 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nomorerichblondes | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A Place to Shine | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Forever Liesl | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Jolie Bay | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Aunt Hattie (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Madding Crowd | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14A | 14 | Speedy Solution | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Shannon’s Girl | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tip At Tapit | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Newspaperofrecord (IRE) | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Sister Kitten | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alasaayil | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Traipsing | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Excuse My Charisma | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Heroic Activist | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Downstream | 20.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pagalo in Avanti | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | H Man | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Scatsuku | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Presence of Mind | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Fast Getaway | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Not So Quiet Man | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vitsal | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | We Should Talk | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sparky | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Outrageous Bet | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Belleville Spring | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | News Anchor | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Source Control | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Royal Heist | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Flatter My Heart | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | China Cat | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mo Wheels Up | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Two Dozen Roses | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Filly Joel | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | It Justhitthe Wire | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Private Beach | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gracetown | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shanghai Bonnie | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Favorable Outcome | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Breaking Lucky | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wonderful Light | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Life in Shambles | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Behavioral Bias | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Petrov | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eight Town | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tres Equis | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Vegas Kitten | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Hoard | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wooderson | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Own Agenda | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Admission Office | 1.40 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Strike | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Nakamura | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Indigo Yankee | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Max Velocity (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | War Chest | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cullum Road | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | La Cat Warrior | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Elenzee | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fortythreeoeight N | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Comeoncomeoncat | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Over Rider | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Generalist | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Southeast | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mad Munnys | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Blinded Vision | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Vicar’s Legend | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rogue Patriot | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.