September 22, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | So Aristocratic | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lil Vie | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fashion Envy | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Medlin | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grats Road | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Town | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ghost Story | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flight Risk | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lead Astray | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dreamer’s Point | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Al Taweel | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lookin At Blessing | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Omen of Change | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Conquistador | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | New Colossus | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Destiny Awaits | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cube | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Franknjymme | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Amiral | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tabia | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tramore Bay | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5A | 5 | Chase Runner | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Biz Nasty | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | He’s a Climber | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Glorious Weekend | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cairo Holiday | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Its Yes | 2.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Galindo | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Carte Blanche | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Schnitzelburggiant | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Duke of Monroe | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Foremost | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rumandice | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Take Charge Angel | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ravenel | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Patsy | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Beautiful Tale | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Almyra | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Letters to Belle | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Caroline Lois | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mucha Mezquina | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Pleasure | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | One River Place | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mutajaded | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Come On Dover | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Seauxtale | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | House of Commons | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lngtermrelationshp | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Drunken Fridays | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Macha’s Reward | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Commandeering | 0.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Animus | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hello Holiday | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Data Gold | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gostisbehere | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cruz Diez | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harlan Selection (ARG) | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bigb’s Anniversary | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Daringly Bold | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Saddle Shoes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Just Perfection | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Peruvian Appeal | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blunt Force | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Garden Affair | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Katie’s Bayou | 5.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Folk Legend | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tschudi’s Girl | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Class Action | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Awesome One | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Upset Brewing | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Venus Serena | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Waves of Blue | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Flash n’ Dance | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Dessert Honeys | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Inheritance | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Good Creation | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mylady Curlin | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Cathedral Reader | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hint of Mint | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Persephone’s Dawn | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ascot Day | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lesley May | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mermaid of Honor | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | As I Please | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Dogwood S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Naples Legacy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Primo Extremo | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Figarella’s Queen | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Devine Mischief | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jean Elizabeth | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shes Our Fastest | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Everyonelovesjimmy | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Go Google Yourself | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Mimosa | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Divine Queen | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Salt Bae | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fairway Lane | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Benny Colors | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Florida Boys | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bluegrass Gem | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Istillgotit | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kiss My Note | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Out of the Office | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Distorted Ransom | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Unstabled | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | All Hansens Ondeck | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | How’s My Bud | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Burnt Bluff | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Stand Alone Dennis | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.