September 23, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Absolute Love | 1.80 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Believe in Me | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Rose | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thesweetesttaboo | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Woody’s Reward | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Madabouther | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Altamira | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Top Credentials | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Doc Kane | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Eminence | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Andrew’s Game | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bronze Age | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Strolling | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Man Kan | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fortythreeoeight N | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fightingjoewheeler | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Royal Edition | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Grade | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eclipsed Moon | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Wilderness Gate | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valycove | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Applewood | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wild About Candy | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tap Show | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Cape Mischief | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | She Is Bedazzling | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Prairie Lane | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sun Studio | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Esther Rising | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Belleinthecity | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shackleford County | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Courageous Heart | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cause Libby Knows | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Honor Bar | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Sunshine Cake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Almafuerte | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Peeps | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cape Time | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Babaknowsevrything | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Indian Gem | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Krissys Manicure | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Uno Sueno | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sure She’s Grand | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Eloquent Moment | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Brush Country | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Most Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tough | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Chroniqueur | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Roan Like the Wind | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Gottageauxgeauxgo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Quick Entry | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chase the Ghost | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | American Mandate | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lord Dragon | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | All About Will | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Afleet Moment | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moon Launch | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Oh Bene | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stock Chain | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Allegiance | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Flash n’ Dance | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Eternal Vow | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Nymue’s Treasure | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Haynesfest | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Faith Healer | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | As Fast as You Can | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Musabaqa | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Heavenly Hill | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Verde | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Soft Cheese | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Criminal Mischief | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Oh So Terrible | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Coachwhip | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Warranty | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Quinn Murphy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tocame Linda | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 6 | Shea’s Cool | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lilt | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Space Cadet | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Ruby Sioux | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | C. S. Incharge | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | You Cheated | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Chaos Theory | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Bye Bye Birdstone | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Dapper Sam | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Rubus | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Silver Dust | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Senor Jobim | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mo’s Mojo | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Travelling Midas | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | M G Warrior | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Soaring Bird | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Most Amusing | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Big Gemmy | 20.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Hallie’s Hero | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Free Run | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Wild Road | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Meanwhile | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Rapid Assent | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Alexandros | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Johnny Banks | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Overzealous | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Fault Line | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Rickhouse | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Back Page | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Inclusion | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | A. P. Royal | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Watch What Happens | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Fighting for Grace | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.