November 10, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.


Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Urban Insight 1.60 2.9 6-1
1 1 Ipanema Beach 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Belleinthecity 4.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Irreplaceable 6.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Awesome Figure 4.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Shanghai Aguilera 12.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Honored Promise 6.00 6.2 12-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 She Looks Proud 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Zena Rules 3.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Don’t Stop Maria 2.50 2.9 6-1
3 3 Fashion Envy 6.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 She’s a Fine Line 10.00 4.7 9-1
9 8 Mahdia 8.00 5.1 10-1
1 1 Thirster 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Cure the Thirst 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 9 Trilby 12.00 6.9 13-1
8 7 Klassie Connect 15.00 7.3 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Deano 2.50 3 6-1
4 4 Sambucca 3.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Intonation 3.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Collection 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Veritas 15.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Squadron Commander 6.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 One Bet From Even 6.00 6 11-1
6 6 Cottage Tap 12.00 6.4 12-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Accolady 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Winter Sunset 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Irish Intuition 2.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Le Moine 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Zamzam 20.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Seeking a Star 5.00 2.9 5-1
8 6 Free to Fly 3.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 Holly Molly Dolly 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 3 Hope So 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 8 Holywood Humor 15.00 5 9-1
10 7 Lady Leah 8.00 5.6 10-1
2 1 Thea Bee 30.00 6 11-1
15 10 Drinking Dixie 12.00 6.6 12-1
6 4 Canton Comet 30.00 7.6 14-1
12 9 Spac 15.00 7.8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Levanto (ARG) 3.50 2.4 5-1
2 2 Memphisinmay 3.50 2.9 5-1
5 5 Altito 2.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Surprise Prize 4.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Fat Daddy 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Yes I See 10.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Ucanthankmelater 12.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Long On Luck 20.00 6.8 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Garden Affair 3.00 2.3 4-1
3 3 Eye’s Reward 2.50 3 6-1
2 2 Freudian Finish 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Broadway Cat 4.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Portion 6.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Note to Selfie 8.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Her Giant 20.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Shaharazad 8.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Sadi’s Hope 20.00 7.7 14-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Cullum Road 2.00 SCRATCH
11A 11 Pony Up 5.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Stewards Rules 30.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Hardest Part (GB) 50.00 SCRATCH
4 2 Midnight Tea Time 2.50 2.2 4-1
6A 4 Lascaux 5.00 3.5 7-1
7 5 Gostisbehere 5.00 4 7-1
2 1 Yourdecisionotmine 10.00 4 8-1
8 6 Arrival 6.00 4.4 8-1
5 3 Tobias 30.00 5.5 10-1
10 7 Frogman Mel 20.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Curate 1.80 1.8 3-1
4 4 Third Day 3.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Lasting Legacy 3.50 3.7 7-1
5 5 Totally Boss 5.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Rockshaw 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Spikes Shirl 6.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Best of Greeley 20.00 6.1 12-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Irish Oak 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Classy John 2.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Six Shooter 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 7 Nitrous 1.80 3.9 7-1
1 1 Dynamic Racer 20.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 P H Factor 8.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Hog Creek Hustle 8.00 4.8 9-1
7 6 Chase Greatness 8.00 5.6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Commonwealth Turf S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 March to the Arch 2.50 3.3 6-1
3 3 Sniper Kitten 3.50 3.3 6-1
1 1 Reride 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Hot Springs 2.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Marzo 12.00 4.5 8-1
6 6 Zero Gravity 8.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Year of the Kitten 15.00 5.9 11-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Trivial 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Sophie’s Angel 10.00 SCRATCH
8 7 Dial Me 2.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 Taylor’s Princess 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Unfading Beauty 12.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Orbelina 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Parking Ticket 15.00 4.8 9-1
9 8 Honor With Pride 3.00 5 9-1
4 4 Her Kitty 20.00 6.6 12-1
10 9 North Princess 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Cinder 20.00 7.3 14-1
11 10 Bella Moon 15.00 7.5 14-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides┬áno warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.