November 11, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dusty Miller | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maid of Iron | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | What a Fox | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vegan Goes Best | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Weightlessness | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Stellar Stiletto | 4.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Q Go Girl | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Savvy Spender | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Katie’s Bayou | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Caroline Lois | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stormy Memo | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lisnet | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Mystery | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Candrasa | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Northern Connect | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zemo | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Olympic Smoke | 4.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rilla | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Adorable Eyes | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Budget Cut | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Colonial Jill | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Council Rules | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Awesome Gal | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Backintheacademy | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Super Wonderful | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Kindness | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Color Me Pretty | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Princess Drossie | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Undercover Lover | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Doc Kane | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Match Play | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Fu | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mexico Memories | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zorzor | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Instant War | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Break the Deal | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Wilderness Gate | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mine My Time | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Yondering | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Into Wynning | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | A. P. Royal | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Youngin’ Fearless | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Jimmy Joe | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wicked Gem | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Border Crossing | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hello Bodie | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Basecamp | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lord Dragon | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Proud as Punch | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Napoleon’s Empire | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Albireo | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Fluellen | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Love Point | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Temple | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | A Man Called Boady | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | He’s the Souperwon | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | War Treaty | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Freemore | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Ahijado | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | A. K. Safari | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Beautiful Wall | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dry Lake | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Rain Drop Kid | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | One Thirty Nine | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trading Cash | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Smoke Monster | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Checkmark | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Chipollino | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Peekacho | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Smart and Broke | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Daringly Bold | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | City Life | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Tariff | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nineteenth Street | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Go Lady Jay | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Maybe Wicked | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bizzee Mischief | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quick Quick Quick | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Foxy Mischief | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Take These Chains (IRE) | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vagabond Princess | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smart Emma | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cheeky Cherub | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Valentine Wish | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Five Hearts | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | You Cheated | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lunar Approach | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | School Board Prez | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | She’s a Gypsy | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Fairly Honest | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Skye Sensational | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Taffydoo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Perfect Beauty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Say It Softly | 1.20 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Igottawhiteface | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Connie Ann | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Vyera | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lucy’s Town | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | She’s So Bossy | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pebble Slinger | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Cape Kimbo | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Fake News and Data | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Arch of Triumph | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Queen Maxine | 30.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miss Fahrenheit | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.