November 14, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Believe in Me | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tipazar | 1.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ciara | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bird Key | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pretty At War | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Seeds of Time | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Miss Artie | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Now Power | 3.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Applique | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Collar | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Love On Tides | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Hardly Mate | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Quinn Murphy | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Looks Super | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The Gipper | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Restless Rambler | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mutajaded | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | En Hanse | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forze Mau (VEN) | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sharp Art | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Icatiro | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | No Funny Biz | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Twobirdsonestone | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Flat Out Beautiful | 3.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ourbestfriend D L | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Musical Man | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kitchi | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Not Now Rand | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rum Bobby | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Recapture | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Catinati | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Jerrid | 2.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shobiz Star | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Justice for Themob | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hello People | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Back Togetheragain | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mellow Fellow | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Kahramani | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vedelago (IRE) | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Steel Shot | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Neverquitdreaming | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Man Kan | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Accumulator | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Al | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Vandelay | 3.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | On John | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Buck Island Day | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trenton Bridge | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Spirit Hawk | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sidney’s Warrior | 12.00 | 7.1 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Confederate Rags | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Major Tempo | 30.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Cured by Kitten | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tour d’Argent | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Don’t Tell Marge | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Haniel | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rahway | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vanilla Cat | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Deadline | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | April Fifteenth | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Tropical Wave | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Tweety Show | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Riesling | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Discreesita | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Summer Storm | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mo | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Hoptown Honey | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Perfect Beauty | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cipherin’ Sue | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Morning Belle | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Latent Revenge | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Dance Proudly | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bondurant | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Tough Stuff | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mount Calvary | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Welovecandy | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Mister Maestro | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Shangroyal | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Tommytom | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Zambian Dream (CHI) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Crosswalk | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Unmoored | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 16 | Scouting | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Little Mighty Man | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Big John O | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Blue Mesa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Wild Will | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tap Show | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rapid Assent | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Whatelse Igot Todo | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fighting for Grace | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Back Page | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | National Pride | 4.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Starlin | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | London Werewolf | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mireuon | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Go Chiva Go | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Delivered by Akiss | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.