November 25, 2018 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | U. S. Currency | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tipazar | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Esther Rising | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mo’s Song | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trieste (BRZ) | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | She Is Bedazzling | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ruby Roan | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lake Barkley | 50.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Toasted | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Ella | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Over Thinking | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | May Lily | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eqho | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Diamondcoat | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Backintheacademy | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Shea’s Cool | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eternal Vow | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | I’mluckysgirl | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Miss Shawhan | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lesia Jane | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Shyla | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Promissory Note | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tiger Lisa | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Valiant Lady | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kiwi Cat | 15.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Almafuerte | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Woman of Love | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Stylitude | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Uno Sueno | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Zemo | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Honor Bar | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Social Circle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Savvy Spender | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lady Leah | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Miss Harry | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dragon Dragon | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mucha Mezquina | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Blue | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sheza Handfull | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Storm Stride | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Naughty Factor | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Singsong Bird | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Scotty’s Folly | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Change of Control | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Anditsafact | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moonfield | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mine My Time | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Quenlenny | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Border Crossing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Starlin | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Loopallu | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Wolf | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Gottsacker | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Destiny Awaits | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Commissioner Bolt | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Jimmy Joe | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forestry’s Buddy | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wicked Gem | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Bodhran | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tapitor | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | El Capa Rojo | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Private Boone | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Speedy Solution | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Go Away | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | My Sixth Sense | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pico Entry | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Six Shooter | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Pole Setter | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Most Mischief | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Le Pond | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Dabo | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Counter Offer | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Albany Fleet | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Coral Legacy | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ascot Day | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nocturnal Mission | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dictate Cool | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Volodina | 3.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Criminal Mischief | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Run Wrightaway | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lifefullofreinbows | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miz K | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bronze Charm | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Portal | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Valdocco | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Fame | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Tap Master | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Beach Bum | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dig Charlie Dig | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Uber Kirk | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Orient Magic | 30.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Time On Target | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Flight Risk | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Overzealous | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Chase the Ghost | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Better Charge It | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Proud as Punch | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Gray Attempt | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Replete | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Captain Von Trapp | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Incorrigible | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Speed App | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | R One | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Silver Quarters | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Warrior’s Charge | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Oncewewerebrothers | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Thundershook | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Roan Like the Wind | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Twobirdsonestone | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | She’s a Gypsy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Mines and Magic | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Happy Like a Fool | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Our Majesty | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Thirteen Songs | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Honor Way | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sister Nation | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet N Wicked | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Naples Trader | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Wills Defence | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Awesome Fu | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Nuclear Option | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Share the Upside | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chaps | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rubus | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Make Noise | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tapit Wicked | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Taxman | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Red Clay Magic | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Firehorn | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gray Sky | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Little Kansas | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | J. S. Choice | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dusty Miller | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bossy Bride | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Cosmic Code | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Delcapem | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New Roo | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | It’s Complicated | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gracie’s Dream | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Shacklette | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Factor Around | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Arbitress | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Singita Dreams | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Malibu Party | 10.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Classysinger | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sheza Miracle Baby | 50.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.