April 5, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Direct Order | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Family Biz | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Americano | 10.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bye Bye Man | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spectator Sport | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Major Flirt | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Daleelaty | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Spectacular | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Gottahaveaholiday | 3.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Cadeau de Paix | 5.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mrs Stinkman | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Quasar | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Inspector Havers | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Semaya | 30.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bowl of Kisses | 1.60 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Courageous Queen | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Malarkey | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tequila Sunday | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nth Degree | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Zecha | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tayler’s the Boss | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Run From Theheat | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Irish Lassie | 1.20 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Flying Pleasantly | 10.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sororitysweetheart | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sister Emily | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Devil’s Flair | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Know Point Given | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aly’s Courage | 20.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mia Bella | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | She’s Trouble | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Hot Stones | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spring Drama | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Passporttovictory | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shesasuperfreak | 15.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Orchid Party | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cryinthemoonlight | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Mend Up | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Party On Prospect | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Fear No One | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Variant Perception | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Air On Fire | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Herecomesyourman | 8.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sport | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Much Trouble | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Alrahaal | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Dr. Hipp | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Phone Funky Munky | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | River Knight | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Charlie McCoy | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Carthon | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zonic | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Uncle Sigh | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Three to Thirteen | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Analyze the Odds | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Distaff H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Split Time | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Startwithsilver | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Come Dancing | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Kathryn the Wise | 2.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Holiday Disguise | 8.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Dawn the Destroyer | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Yorkiepoo Princess | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Rosyjersey | 30.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pacific Gale | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Flashpackinbarbie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Awillaway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Alphadora | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Petalite | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Princess Pinky | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Star of the East | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sterling Beauty | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Scarlet’s Command | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Recess | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lough Na Mona | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Anne’s Song | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Amarone | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mickey Diamond | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sander’s Empire | 30.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Joule | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Violetas Visions | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.