April 5, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Social Circle | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 1.4 | 3-1 | ||||
| 2 | 2 | Art Buff | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Resurrection Road | 3.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Promised Fame | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Czraina Maria | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rock Ice | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Arlanza | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Main Squeeze | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Lady Pauline | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Clongiffen | 8.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baytown Legend | 15.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | At the Beach | 20.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Not Again Jackie | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | City Front | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Thirsty Junior | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Two Dot | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Musta Never Met U | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Banana Pepper | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Kolten’s Court | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | It Is the Season | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Golden Curl | 1.40 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 1.7 | 3-1 | |||||
| 1 | 1 | Amos | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Club Car | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gottaflathaveher | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Daddymademedoit | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Second Coming | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kukoo Kunuku | 30.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get Up Wendy | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Miss Altamira | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Abounding Joy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.5 | 3-1 | |||||
| 1 | 1 | Oh My | 6.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nantucket Red | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Santino | 10.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Coco Channel | 10.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Environs (GB) | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hey Negrita | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Twin Channel | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Don’t Tell Marge | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Trivial | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Savour the Moment | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Kitten’s Slew | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sea Dream (BRZ) | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16A | 16 | Trapper Peak | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Obtained | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Toothpic | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tale of Fame | 5.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 1.6 | 3-1 | |||||
| 2A | 2 | Sergio | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Soul of Discretion | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oskar Blues | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dantu | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bryzzo | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Border Crossing | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Western Trouble | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Homefortheweekend | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Westwood Proud | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Trooper Thorn | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Trockette | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 3-1 | ||||
| 1 | 1 | Sister’s Creed | 10.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Majestic Rose | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Del Mar May | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pickle Back | 20.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sugar Love | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chat Noir | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Blip Says Bye | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bellazano | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Samurai Queen | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16A | 16 | Don’t Be So Salty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Reride | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Dot Matrix | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Siem Riep | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | First Premio | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Projected (GB) | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Are You Kidding Me | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fast and Accurate | 15.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Offering Plan | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Arklow | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vettori Kin (BRZ) | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Right | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Master Merion | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Sabador (FR) | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Highball | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13A | 11 | Dubby Dubbie | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Cave Run | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Stage Left | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1.6 | 3-1 | |||||
| 2 | 2 | U S Navy Cross | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | High Crime | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Frolic More | 12.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conative | 30.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Get the Prize | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Come On Gerry | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Intrepid Heart | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Gun It | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Curlin Grey | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Kentucky Utilities Transylvania S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Hawaiian Noises | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Go Away | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Life Mission | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Onthewaytonevrland (IRE) | 3.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Avie’s Flatter | 3.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | The Black Album (FR) | 10.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Henley’s Joy | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Louder Than Bombs | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Dunph | 12.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Weekly Call | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | War Film | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Animo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fast Talking | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fuel the Bern | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Uber Kirk | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Time On Target | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chaps | 12.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strike Revenge | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Coastbuster | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Private Eye | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 13A | 11 | Dreamzapper | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | British Humor | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Dahog | 50.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Testy Kitten | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.